Exclusive: India’s urban unemployment rate slows in March 2019 quarter


© Reuters. Exclusive: India’s urban unemployment rate slows in March 2019 quarter – government data

By Sudarshan Varadhan and Aftab Ahmed

NEW DELHI (Reuters) – India’s urban unemployment rate between January and March this year was 9.3%, the lowest in at least four quarters, according to an unpublished government report reviewed by Reuters.

The numbers, recorded in the statistics ministry’s quarterly jobs report, could provide some relief to Prime Minister Narendra Modi who has faced criticism for not being able to create enough jobs amid slowing economic growth.

The urban unemployment rate of the January-March quarter compared with 9.9% in the preceding quarter. Quarterly data prior to the April-June 2018 survey period is not available and the January-March quarter’s rate is the lowest since then.

The report, which is likely to be published soon, did not assess rural unemployment.

The estimates were arrived as using the so-called “current weekly status” method which gives an average picture of unemployment in a short period of seven days preceding the survey period, the document said. A person is considered as unemployed in a week if he did not work even for 1 hour during that week.

Joblessness among the youth – those aged between 15-29 years and who account for roughly over a third of India’s 1.3 billion people – was also marginally lower at 22.5% in the quarter ending March 2019, from 23.7% in the preceding quarter.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.



Canada unexpectedly lost jobs in October as labor market stagnated, unemployment rate steady at 5.5% By Reuters


© Reuters. People wait in line for resume critique and career assessment sessions at 2014 Spring National Job Fair and Training Expo in Toronto

By Kelsey Johnson

OTTAWA (Reuters) – The Canadian job market stagnated unexpectedly in October, losing 1,800 net positions, while the unemployment rate remained at 5.5%, Statistics Canada said on Friday, as employment declined in the manufacturing and construction sectors.

Analysts in a Reuters poll had forecast a gain of 15,900 jobs in October and an unemployment rate of 5.5%. Wages for permanent employees rose by 4.4%, Statscan said.

Canada lost 16,100 full-time positions last month, but gained 14,300 part-time jobs. The number of self-employed workers in October fell by 27,800.

The Canadian dollar weakened to a three-week low of $1.3232 to the U.S. dollar, or 75.57 cents U.S., after the jobs data was released.

“It definitely runs against the grain of very strong job gains we’ve seen through most of the past year,” said Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, noting there was likely a “small, temporary boost” because of hiring tied to last month’s national election.

“We have to be cautious about reading too much into any one report, but it shows that the economy is not simply on a one-way trip north here,” Porter said.

Canada’s central bank, which has not moved since October 2018 even as its counterparts – including the U.S. Federal Reserve – have eased, held firm as expected last week, but left the door open to a possible future cut to help the economy weather the damaging effects of global trade conflicts.

The Bank of Canada said it would monitor “the extent to which the global slowdown spreads beyond manufacturing and investment” going forward while watching domestic data.

“I don’t think one number will move the needle a whole lot at the Bank of Canada, but at the margin it’s a little bit more of a cautious signal,” Derek Holt, vice president of capital markets economics at Scotiabank, said of the jobs report.

Statscan said the services sector gained 39,000 jobs in October, with increases reported in public administration, as well as finance, real estate, insurance and rental leasing industries, while the goods-producing sectors saw a decline of 40,900 jobs on losses in manufacturing and construction.

The country’s manufacturing sector lost 23,100 jobs in October, mostly located in Ontario, while the construction sector lost 21,300 positions across five provinces, Statscan said.

In a separate release, Statistics Canada said the value of Canadian building permits dropped by a larger-than-expected 6.5% in September to C$8.3 billion ($6.28 billion) because of declines in the residential sector.



Two BOE Members Unexpectedly Vote for Rate Cut as Outlook Sours By Bloomberg


© Reuters. Two BOE Members Unexpectedly Vote for Rate Cut as Outlook Sours

(Bloomberg) — The Bank of England is growing increasingly concerned about Brexit uncertainty and the global slowdown, pushing two policy makers to unexpectedly vote for an interest rate cut.

Michael Saunders and Jonathan Haskel wanted to lower the by a quarter point — the first votes for looser policy since 2016 — citing threats to the outlook and signs of a turn in the labor market. While the majority, including Governor Mark Carney, voted to keep the rate at 0.75%, they signaled that a further deterioration could see more policy makers support easing.

“If global growth fails to stabilize, or if Brexit uncertainty remains entrenched, monetary policy may need to reinforce the expected recovery,” officials said in the summary of the meeting, published Thursday.

The declined after the announcement, and was 0.2% lower at $1.2827 as of 12:05 p.m. London time.

The comments show the BOE is shifting closer to other central banks, such as the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, which have already cut interest rates this year. Still, signs of easing in the China-U.S. trade tensions on Thursday could be good news for the global economy and mean less chance of a worse scenario emerging.

While Saunders had been mentioned as a possible dissenter this month, Haskel’s vote for a cut is a surprise.

The BOE also said that if the risks don’t materialize, their previous guidance that limited and gradual hikes may be needed still stands.

In their re-branded Monetary Policy Report, officials cut their forecasts for growth and inflation. The projections highlight the impact of the global slowdown, with external factors accounting for most of the downgrade.

New Assumptions

The new forecasts are now also underpinned by a new assumption for Brexit, after U.K. prime minister Boris Johnson secured a new deal with the EU. The outlook is predicated on an “orderly transition to a deep free trade agreement” similar to the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement in place between the bloc and Canada.

While a large amount of uncertainty remains, a major effect of the new assumptions is that the BOE is girding for greater impact within its forecast period. It previous based its forecasts on a less precise adjustment taking place over “many years.”

Based on market pricing for one rate cut over the next three years, the BOE now sees 2020 growth at 1.2% — which would be the worst since 2009 — from 1.3% previously, and the following year at 1.8%, down from 2.3%. The level of GDP will be 1% lower at the end of the forecast period than expected in August.

Officials now see far weaker inflation in the near-term thanks to a drop in energy prices, and it will remain below target until late 2021.

The U.K. is headed for a general election in December, and the country’s deadline to leave the EU has been postponed until Jan. 31. While Brexit is dominating the economic outlook, there’s also no escaping the slowdown in global growth.

The BOE devoted a whole section to trade protectionism and the global outlook. The trade dispute between the U.S and China has caused a fundamental shift in policy after a 50-year trend towards liberalization, boosted uncertainty and weighed on growth, the BOE said.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.



Bank of England surprises as two officials back rate cut By Reuters


© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Bank of England Governor Mark Carney attends a Bank of England news conference, in the City of London

By David Milliken and Andy Bruce

LONDON (Reuters) – Two Bank of England officials unexpectedly voted to lower interest rates on Thursday to ward off an economic slowdown, and others including Governor Mark Carney said they would consider a cut if global and Brexit headwinds do not ease.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected the BoE to vote unanimously to keep Bank Rate at 0.75%, and the announcement of the 7-2 split pushed sterling to a two-week low as market odds on a cut next year rose as high as 80%.

To date, the BoE has resisted following the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank in cutting its main interest rate, but Thursday’s Monetary Policy Report positions the BoE for a change in stance.

Carney said the BoE’s central scenario was that a slowdown in global growth would stabilize and that Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal – which parliament has yet to approve – pointed the way to a reduction in Brexit uncertainty.

If this scenario unfolds, the BoE would still be able to stick to its long-standing message about limited and gradual rate hikes.

But if the outlook deteriorates, the BoE said a rate cut would become more likely.

“These are pretty big tectonic forces operating right now,” Carney told reporters. “If global growth fails to stabilize or if Brexit uncertainties remain entrenched, monetary policy may need to reinforce the expected recovery in UK GDP growth.”

For Monetary Policy Committee members Michael Saunders and Jonathan Haskel, it was already time to act – they cast the first votes for a rate cut since shortly after the 2016 Brexit referendum.

“In the short term at least, it seems the MPC is more concerned about the downside risks to growth and is prepared to pull the trigger on a rate cut if and when these risks materialize,” PwC economist John Hawksworth said.

The BoE is also grappling with uncertainty about an election which Johnson has called for Dec. 12, in a bid to get a majority to pass his Brexit deal before a new deadline of Jan. 31.

The two main political parties are promising to end years of austerity and spend billions on infrastructure – aided by record-low interest rates – to try to fuel growth.

JOB MARKET WORRIES

Saunders and Haskel noted reduced job vacancies that suggested Britain’s hitherto strong labor market was turning as well as risks from the world economy and Brexit.

Other MPC members showed a new openness to cutting rates if things soured. They also softened their language on the need for limited and gradual rate hikes in the medium term, saying they “might” rather than “would” be necessary.

The BoE as a whole painted a darker picture for Britain’s economy over the next three years, predicting it will grow 1% less over the period than it had forecast in August, mostly due to a weaker global economy and a recently stronger pound.

But part of the growth downgrade reflected Johnson’s Brexit plans.

The BoE now assumes Britain will strike a trade deal that leads to new customs checks and puts up barriers to exports of financial and legal services.

The growth forecast would have been weaker still without higher spending announced by the government in September which the BoE said would add 0.4% to the economy.

Inflation, currently 1.7%, is forecast to drop to 1.2% in the middle of next year due to lower oil prices and regulatory caps on electricity and water bills.

But over the next couple of years, the BoE sees economic growth picking up from 1.4% in 2019 to 2.0% in 2022. The 2022 growth rate is above Britain’s long-term trend and would push inflation back above the BoE’s 2% goal, the central bank said.

(This story corrects paragraph 18 to say .. without higher spending ..not.. with higher spending)



Australia Holds Key Rate, Wagers Property Will Lift Spirits By Bloomberg



(Bloomberg) — Australia kept interest rates unchanged Tuesday, betting that a rebound in property prices will increase household wealth and confidence and see consumers more willing to part with their cash.

Reserve Bank chief Philip Lowe and his board left the cash rate at 0.75% in Sydney as they monitor the ongoing impact of three reductions since June. The decision was predicted by money markets and economists and comes as policy makers struggle to accelerate economic growth and rekindle inflation.

“Given global developments and the evidence of the spare capacity in the Australian economy, it is reasonable to expect that an extended period of low interest rates will be required,” Governor Lowe said in a statement announcing the decision. The board “is prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy.”

Australia gained much-needed breathing space in its easing cycle when the Federal Reserve signaled last week it was pausing rate cuts. That is likely to cool upward pressure on an dollar that Lowe has struggled to contain in order to keep his nation’s exporters competitive and hiring.

While the RBA’s three-quarters of a percentage point of rate cuts — the same as the Fed — and Australian government tax rebates have failed to lift flagging consumer spirits, monetary policy easing has been a boon for housing.

Prices in Melbourne surged 2.3% in October, the biggest monthly gain in almost 10 years, and have jumped 6% since bottoming in May. Sydney isn’t far behind, advancing 1.7% last month and rebounding 5.3% since May.

Yet that wealth effect hasn’t translated into improved sentiment: consumer confidence has fallen in four of the five months since the RBA resumed easing; retail sales, meanwhile, are miserable and rose just 0.2% in September from a year earlier and actually fell 0.1% in volume terms in the third quarter.

Lowe said today the central scenario is for the economy to expand around 2.25% this year — a quarter-point less than forecast three months ago — and then “gradually to pick up” to around 3% in 2021, in line with its August assessment. No figure was provided for 2020. The RBA will release its updated quarterly forecasts Friday.

“The low level of interest rates, recent tax cuts, ongoing spending on infrastructure, the upswing in housing prices in some markets and a brighter outlook for the resources sector should all support growth,” the governor said. He reiterated the outlook for consumption remains the main domestic uncertainty.

In a new addition, Lowe added that, “other sources of uncertainty include the effects of the drought and the evolution of the housing construction cycle.”

As has been the case for some time, Australia’s economy is being supported by one of the fastest growing populations in the developed world. But that’s proving a problem for the jobs market, where a surge in hiring has been mainly met by new entrants to the labor force, keeping unemployment above 5%. Lowe is trying to push down the jobless rate in order to spur wage growth and revive inflation.

The RBA targets consumer-price growth of 2-3% over time and the government announced today it was sticking with that framework.

Offshore, key trading partner China continues to slow and instability from Brexit to Hong Kong is weighing on global growth. The bright spot is increasing signs of a preliminary U.S.-China trade deal.

The currency is holding below 70 U.S. cents, and policy makers will want to keep the pressure on the Aussie to aid growth, particularly as the government is disinclined to add stimulus to the economy. The Aussie was little changed after the decision, trading at 69.03 U.S. cents at 3:21 p.m. in Sydney.

(Updates with comments from governor in eighth paragraph.)



Fed’s Daly says rate cuts put U.S. economy in better position By Reuters



(Reuters) – San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said Monday that the central bank’s three rate cuts leave the U.S. economy better positioned to withstand the risks of global slowdown, joining the chorus of policymakers saying it is time to let the Fed’s insurance cuts take effect.

“The last three interest rate cuts that we made are to be supportive so we don’t find ourselves in a slowdown that translates into something else,” Daly said Monday at an event at New York University. “It’s about getting the economy in a good place… so that we can continue to push against the considerable headwinds against the U.S. economy.”

Daly also said the U.S. economy was strong and that officials would adjust monetary policy if economic data pointed to a more pessimistic outlook.

Fed officials lowered interest rates last week for the third time this year, bringing the target level to a range of 1.50% to 1.75%. The rate cut was accompanied with new language suggesting that officials were done with the current ‘mid-cycle’ round of rate reductions.

Daly does not vote on the Fed’s monetary policy decisions this year but she does participate in deliberations.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.



U.S. Dollar Remains Lackluster After Fed Rate Cut By Investing.com


© Reuters.

Investing.com – The U.S. dollar remained lower against other currencies on Thursday after falling during the prior session when the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points and failed to give clarity on further easing.

The Fed cut interest rates to a target range of between 1.50% and 1.75% and dropped previous phrase that it “will act as appropriate” to sustain the economic expansion.

The , which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.3% to 97.148 as of 10:14 AM ET (13:14 GMT).

The safe-haven Japanese yen was higher with down 0.7% to 108.07, as trade tensions weighed.

A report by Bloomberg cast doubt over the course of the U.S.-China trade dispute, alleging that Chinese officials are reluctant to commit to any long-term deal with President Donald Trump, whom they see as unreliable. That’s despite both countries saying they had made substantial progress to a preliminary deal in the coming weeks. The report repeated familiar complaints by Chinese officials resisting the structural reforms demanded by the U.S., which include state subsidies and protection for intellectual property rights.

Elsewhere, sterling was higher, with up 0.4% to 1.2947 while was flat at 1.1146.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.





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Trump blasts Fed after rate cut, says hurting U.S. competitiveness By Reuters



WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday launched a broadside attack on the U.S. Federal Reserve and its chairman, Jerome Powell, saying the central bank’s policies were hurting U.S. competitiveness.

“The Fed puts us at a competitive disadvantage. China is not our problem, the Federal Reserve is,” Trump said on Twitter, adding that interest rates in the United States should be lower than Germany, Japan “and all others”.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.



Gold Prices Gain Amid Sino-U.S. Trade Uncertainties; Fed Cuts Rate as Expected By Investing.com


© Reuters.

Investing.com – Gold drew some safe-haven demand on Thursday in Asia after Chile announced on Wednesday it had canceled a November meeting of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation council, which was supposed to provide the original venue for the signing of a partial trade deal between China and the U.S.

Chile also extended a state of emergency to several cities across the country as it grappled with nationwide protests sparked by a proposed hike in public transport fares.

for December delivery rose 0.2% to 1,499.95 by 1:33 AM ET (05:33 GMT).

Limiting the gains of the yellow metal werereports that Washington still planned to sign the deal with China in November despite the cancelation of the summit.

China’s cabinet adviser Zhu Guangyao told Reuters on the sidelines of a forum in Singapore on China-U.S. relations that he is still optimistic that a deal can be signed next month.

“Based on (the principles of) mutual trust and mutual benefits, I believe both countries can achieve great success,” said Zhu, who was directly involved in the bilateral trade talks as a vice finance minister until his retirement in 2018.

In other news, the U.S. Federal Reserve slashed its benchmark funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 1.5% to 1.75%, as expected.

The central bank hinted that it may pause its future rate hike plans, as it removed a key clause in the post-meeting statement that said the Fed was committed to “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion.”

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a news conference that central bank officials “see the current stance of monetary policy as likely to remain appropriate.”

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.



Dollar Treads Water Ahead of Expected Fed Rate Cut By Investing.com


© Reuters.

Investing.com – The dollar was holding steady against the other major currencies on Wednesday ahead of an expected interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve and data on third quarter growth that could shed light on the longer term outlook for monetary policy.

The U.S. central bank is expected to for a third time in as many meetings when it concludes its two-day meeting on Wednesday.

Advance data on was also expected to be scrutinized for clues on the economic outlook, coming ahead of other major data releases such as Friday’s key non-farm payrolls report.

“In the last 4-5 weeks there has been a concern that the consumer part of the market is starting to slow and that could mean more cuts next year,” said Derek Halpenny, European head of global markets at MUFG in London.

“So what lies ahead post the Fed meeting, the GDP data, payrolls will shape market expectations in addition to what (Fed chief Jerome) Powell will say today.”

The dollar was steady against the at 1.1118 by 05:17 AM ET (09:17 GMT) and marginally lower versus a of six major currencies at 97.41.

Against the , the greenback was also little changed at 108.82, not far from its three-month high of 109.07 yen touched on Tuesday.

Investors are watching for any indication that further cuts are likely, with futures pricing suggesting more easing is expected in 2020. If that is not foreshadowed, traders expect the dollar to rise.

“If the market is going to price in the end of current rate-cut cycle, the dollar/yen could climb above 110 yen,” said Tohru Sasaki, head of Japan markets research at JPMorgan Chase Bank.

“On the other hand, if the market is going to price in two more cuts after this month’s expected cut, the pair could fall to mid-107 yen level,” he added.

Optimism that Washington and Beijing would finalize the first-stage of a trade deal next month had boosted risk assets in recent days, but markets have turned wary.

A U.S. administration official said on Tuesday an interim trade agreement between the two side might not be completed in time for signing on the sidelines of an Asia-Pacific summit in Chile next month, but that does not mean the accord is falling apart.

was also stable, holding below recent five-month highs, after Britain’s lower house of parliament approved calling an early election in December that might break the Brexit deadlock.

–Reuters contributed to this report

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.





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