How the Euro Could Defy Analysts and Options Market Ahead of Fed By Bloomberg



(Bloomberg) — Euro bulls may be looking at a longer wait before they can break free, with a compelling case that the shared currency may head lower into next week’s Federal Reserve monetary policy decision.

It comes in defiance of consensus views among analysts for the euro to rebound, an expectation also reflected by current pricing in the options market. The common currency slipped to a seven-week low of $1.1026 on Friday, at a time when the median estimate of analysts in a Bloomberg survey calls for a move to $1.1400 by end-June and sentiment through options remains bullish for the common currency. That’s turned the currency’s charts bearish in the short-term and may leave long positions looking exposed.

The euro failed to gain traction even after euro-area composite PMI data offered pockets of promise and the European Central Bank warned investors not to assume that policy is on autopilot mode. Momentum selling emerged earlier when the Governing Council’s meeting on Thursday didn’t offer signs that it was looking to tighten monetary policy soon.

Volatility in the euro fell to fresh record lows this week, a pattern that supports the case of it being used as a funding currency of choice for carry trades. That came as Europe became the focus of global trade relations, after U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said tariffs on auto imports from the European Union remained under consideration.

The main check point for the market next week is Wednesday’s Fed rate call. Any rebound for the euro may depend on U.S. monetary policy rhetoric sounding more-dovish-than expected. A strong aversion to riskier trades and the ongoing dominance of tight ranges in the spot market could also help.

But don’t forget that the Fed isn’t expected to cut interest rates any time soon and the hurdle remains high for officials to sound outright dovish as the latest data have positively surprised the market, undermining the chances for a euro boost. That leaves the shared currency’s bulls looking for traction elsewhere. Market jitters over the economic effects of a China-originated virus could prompt outflows out of emerging markets and back to the euro area.

Euro bulls’ best chance may be with short-term traders who look to fade dips as expectations for a large move next month stand at multi-year lows. Technically, the euro remains in a bearish trajectory below its 55-daily moving average, currently at $1.1095, and may target a move below $1.0950, which could satisfy the projection of a head and shoulders pattern that was completed this week.

A lower volatility environment has pressured the euro in the past two years, yet at the moment it is just what could offer some short-term relief.

What to Watch:

  • Chinese New Year Saturday; Italy holds local elections in the region of Emilia-Romagna the following day in the latest challenge for the ruling coalition
  • Fed Chairman Jerome Powell holds a news conference after the FOMC rate decision on Jan. 29; highly-anticipated Bank of England policy decision comes the next day; Governor Mark Carney to speak
  • Policy maker speeches coming up include Bank of Canada’s Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry and Riksbank Governor Stefan Ingves
  • Economic releases include euro area GDP and CPI; U.S. personal spending, GDP; Sweden retail sales and Norway unemployment; see data calendar
  • NOTE: Vassilis Karamanis is an FX and rates strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice
Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.





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Global LNG Poised for Terrible Year as New Supply Floods Market By Bloomberg



(Bloomberg) — Liquefied prices are poised to test record lows this year thanks to an onslaught of new supply and warmer winter temperatures curbing consumption.

The startup of new export projects from Australia to the U.S. has flooded the market, while brimming stockpiles in Europe and an expected slowdown in Chinese demand have dumped cold water on consumption prospects. LNG for spot delivery to North Asia is on track to hit an all-time low this summer, while gas prices in Europe and the U.S. are trading at the weakest seasonal levels since 1999.

“The global oversupply of LNG has been building and building and building,” said Ron Ozer, founder of gas-focused hedge fund Statar Capital LLC in New York. “The gas market can’t stomach the oversupply and warm weather, and it’s getting both.”

This is what the rock-bottom prices mean for the industry:

American Halt

U.S. gas exports have surged amid the nation’s shale boom, but plummeting prices may now throttle back shipments or encourage sustained maintenance while firms weather the storm. Producers and companies with offtake agreements may decide not to load cargoes because prices are too low to earn a profit after accounting for shipping costs.

With cargoes from the Gulf of Mexico currently priced around $2.65 per million Btu, cash margins are positive only because of weak U.S. benchmark prices, according to Robert Sims, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie Ltd. There’s a chance that production could be reduced if the spread between benchmark Henry Hub and U.S. Gulf LNG narrows 25 cents, he said. Torbjorn Tornqvist, chief executive officer of Gunvor Group Ltd., the biggest independent LNG trader, sees the market about 50 cents away from shut downs.

“I think we can see even lower prices in the next few months,” Tornqvist said in an interview this week in Davos. “The supply and demand balance doesn’t look good.”

Contract Scrutiny

Buyers may demand revisions to long-term supply contracts, such as better pricing or the removal of restrictions on reselling cargoes. Japan’s Osaka Gas Co. has already taken action, moving an Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:).-led LNG joint-venture to arbitration in a bid to get lower rates.

Qatar, one of the world’s biggest suppliers and traditionally the strictest when it comes to pricing, may be showing some flexibility. The supplier has started offering more competitive price links, with the lowest seen to Korea Gas at 10.8% the price of oil, according to FGE, an energy consultant. That compares to 2008, when Qatar signed contracts with Chinese firms in the 16% range.

Investment Delays

After four years of belt-tightening, the amount of investments last year in new production capacity set a record. Companies including Qatar Petroleum, Novatek PJSC and Venture Global LNG Inc. sanctioned new plants from the U.S. to Russia.

But the current wave of additional supply and persistent weak global prices is challenging new projects seeking final investment decisions, according to Morgan Stanley (NYSE:). The bank reduced its outlook for the number of projects reaching FID and revised lower its new supply outlook for the middle of the decade. The low price environment will also likely force Qatar to stagger or postpone its planned 64% capacity expansion, currently scheduled by 2027, according to FGE.

Profit Pain

Weak prices mean more pain for global energy majors including Total SA (PA:) and Eni SpA, who have seen profits from gas-related businesses dwindle. Some European utilities — who face mounting criticism for their use of fossil fuels — may decide to follow peers that are ditching LNG altogether. Denmark’s Orsted A/S cited loss-making LNG operations for its decision to sell the business to Glencore (LON:) Plc at the end of last year, while Spain’s Iberdrola (MC:) SA completed its exit this month.

The Sunnier Side

Royal Dutch Shell (LON:) Plc, the biggest trader of the fuel, has been able to stave off losses on LNG through contracts linked to oil, while leveraging the weak spot market. Most long-term LNG contracts are linked to the price of crude, which puts them about twice as expensive as prompt cargoes sourced on the spot market.

The world’s biggest importers of LNG, Japan’s Jera Co. and Korea Gas Corp., will benefit from lower prices and may be encouraged to shift more of their procurement to the spot market. Jera gets about 20% on spot or via short-term contracts, which run four years of less. That compares with an average of 32% across global LNG trade. Korea Gas bought about one-quarter of its imports on a spot basis in 2018. Still, the firms’ upside is limited as they will source most of the remainder through oil-linked contracts.

India’s transition toward gas may get a boost, as the nation’s price-sensitive buyers are poised to pick up more cargoes from the spot market, Morgan Stanley analysts said in a Jan. 16 note. Beneficiaries of the transition are gas aggregators like Gail India Ltd and Petronet LNG Ltd and city gas distributors, according to the bank.



Ericsson hit by higher 5G costs and weaker U.S. market


STOCKHOLM (Reuters) – Sweden’s Ericsson (ERICb.ST) reported a smaller-than-expected rise in fourth-quarter core earnings on Friday and said higher costs would spill over into 2020 as the telecoms equipment maker looks to exploit its leading position in super-fast 5G networks.

FILE PHOTO: The Ericsson logo is seen at the Ericsson’s headquarters in Stockholm, Sweden June 14, 2018. REUTERS/Olof Swahnberg

Its shares fell more than 6% in early trading.

After a number of lean years, Ericsson has been boosted by the roll-out of 5G, particularly in the United States.

But while 5G has helped sales, it has increased costs. Ericsson has also opted to take on strategically important clients to gain market share, betting a hit on margins in the short term will help to deliver longer-term profitability.

The company recently bought the antenna and filter business of Germany’s Kathrein to boost its 5G portfolio and said costs and investments related to the deal would weigh on margins through 2020.

Increased investments in digitalization and more spending on compliance – after a $1 billion payment to resolve probes by U.S. authorities into corruption – are also expected to mean somewhat higher operating costs in 2020.

Ericsson shares were down 6.1 percent to 79.44 Swedish crowns at 0840 GMT, underpeforming the STOXX Europe 600 Technology Index .SX8P, which was up 1.2%.

Nevertheless, CEO Borje Ekholm said Ericsson was on track to deliver on its 2020 targets of an adjusted operating margin of more than 10% and sales of 230 to 240 billion Swedish crowns.

5G

Ericsson is fighting rivals Nokia (NOKIA.HE) and Huawei [HWT.UL] to take the lead in the roll out of 5G networks, which are expected to host critical functions from driverless vehicles to smart electric grids and military communications.

That has led the United States to blacklist Huawei and launch a worldwide campaign to try to persuade allies to ban the Chinese firm from their 5G networks, alleging its equipment could be used by Beijing for spying – which Huawei denies.

Britain is expected soon to make a final decision on whether to allow Huawei equipment in its 5G mobile networks, while Germany may also rule on the matter during the spring.

North America has been the biggest market for 5G so far, boosting Ericsson’s sales, but the company said demand slowed in the fourth quarter as the proposed merger between Sprint (S.N) and T-Mobile hit their spending.

“It was a significant impact in a small part of the market which means the quarter came out negative in North America,” Ekholm said. “But in general demand is very strong there.”

While the United States is an early 5G adopter, China is expected to start its roll out this year and Western Europe after that.

By 2025, the GSMA telecoms industry lobby group estimates operators globally will have spent $1 trillion building up 5G networks, offering a huge jackpot for the leading suppliers.

Ericsson’s adjusted quarterly operating earnings rose to 5.7 billion crowns ($600.2 million) from 2.6 billion a year earlier, but were down from 7.4 billion the previous quarter. Analysts in a Refinitiv poll had forecast 6.9 billion crowns.

(For a graphic on 5G networks, click on: here)

Reporting by Johannes Hellstrom; Writing by Simon Johnson; Editing by Mark Potter



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U.S. weekly jobless claims rise modestly; labor market tight By Reuters


© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: People wait for assistance at the Virginia Employment Commission office in Alexandria

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits increased less than expected last week, suggesting the labor market continues to tighten even as job growth is slowing.

Labor market strength is underpinning consumer spending, helping to keep the longest economic expansion on record, now in its 11th year, on track, despite a downturn in manufacturing.

“Employers are not cutting positions outside of the normal churn of the labor market and workers are incredibly confident in their job prospects, and not taking the time to file a claim if they are laid off,” said Maria Cosma, an economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 211,000 for the week ended Jan. 18, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Claims had declined for five straight weeks, resulting in the unwinding of the surge seen in early December, which was blamed on a later-than-normal Thanksgiving Day.

Claims data for the prior week was revised to show 1,000 more applications received than previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims increasing to 215,000 in the latest week.

The Labor Department said claims for Alabama, California, Delaware, Hawaii, Kansas, Puerto Rico and Virginia were estimated because of Monday’s Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday, which left authorities with less time to compile the data.

The four-week moving average of initial claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, fell 3,250 to 213,250 last week, the lowest level since September.

U.S. financial markets were little moved by the data, with investors focusing their attention elsewhere. The dollar edged up against a basket of currencies after the European Central Bank left unchanged its key interest rates and stimulus programs. U.S. Treasury prices rose, while stocks on Wall Street fell on rising worries over the coronavirus outbreak in China.

JOB GROWTH SLOWING

Last week’s claims data covered the period during which the government surveyed business establishments for the nonfarm payrolls component of January’s employment report.

The four-week moving average of claims dropped 12,500 between the December and January survey periods, suggesting some pickup in job growth this month.

The economy created 145,000 jobs last month after adding a massive 256,000 positions in November. The slowdown in job growth has been blamed on a shortage of workers and ebbing demand in some industries like manufacturing, which has been hammered by trade tensions and problems at Boeing (N:).

Boeing this month suspended production of its troubled 737 MAX jetliner, with ripple effects down the supply chain. Boeing’s biggest supplier Spirit AeroSystems Holdings (N:) said early this month it planned to lay off more than 20% of the workforce at its Wichita, Kansas base.

Despite the low level of claims, the data have been showing layoffs in manufacturing, as well as transportation and warehousing, construction, educational service and accommodation and food services industries from late 2019 through mid-January.

That fits in with the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, which last week showed “most districts cited widespread labor shortages as a factor constraining job growth,” and “a number of districts reported job cuts or reduced hiring among manufacturers,” as well as “scattered reports of job cuts in the transportation and energy sectors,” at the tail end of 2019.

“The jury is out on whether this signals a soft patch for the monthly payroll figures in January,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG in New York.

Despite the moderation in job gains, the labor market remains on solid footing, with the unemployment rate holding near a 50-year low of 3.5% in December and a measure of labor market slack dropping to an all-time low of 6.7%.

Thursday’s claims report also showed the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid dropped 37,000 to 1.73 million for the week ended Jan. 11. The so-called continuing claims had surged to 1.80 million at the end of 2019, which was the highest level since April 2018. The jump was blamed on year-end volatility.

The four-week moving average of the so-called continuing claims increased 2,000 to 1.76 million in the most recent week.



EIDOS Transaction Volumes Skew 2019 DApp Market Report By Cointelegraph



The transaction volume going through the EIDOS decentralized application (dApp) has massively skewed the results of the 2019 dApp Market Report, published Jan. 20. The token airdrop dApp on the blockchain, saw almost three times as many transactions in 2019 as all of the other dApps on nine leading platforms combined.

Perhaps the most notable aspect about this statistic is that EIDOS did not launch until 1st November 2019.

Continue Reading on Coin Telegraph

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.



Crude Off Highs; Risk Premium Leaves The Market By Investing.com


© Reuters.

By Peter Nurse

Investing.com — Oil prices were off the high levels seen over the weekend in early afternoon trading in Europe, but were still trading positively after unrest hit production in two oil exporting countries, Iraq and Libya.

Security guards shut down production at the 70,000 barrel a day Al Ahdab field in Iraq at the weekend in a protest demanding permanent employment contracts.

At the same time two large crude production bases in Libya began shutting down after forces loyal to Russian-backed Khalifa Haftar closed a pipeline, in an effort to keep up the pressure on UN-recognized Prime Minister Fayez al Sarrajamid as attempts to end the civil war continue.

“Prior to the blockade, Libya was producing around 1.2MMbbls/d. A prolonged disruption from Libya would be enough to swing the global oil market from surplus to deficit in 1Q20,” said analysts Warren Patterson and Wenyu Yao at ING, in a research note.

OIl prices climbed to the highest levels seen in a week over the weekend, but have since given up some of these gains. By 6:45 AM ET (1345 GMT), futures were at $58.95 a barrel, up 0.7%, having peaked at $59.73 over the weekend, the highest since Jan. 10. was up 0.8% at $65.36, from a high of $66, the highest since Jan. 9.

Analysts at Platts Analytics noted in a podcast earlier Monday that there was now very little risk premium in the market, and fundamentals warrant to trade around the $65 a barrel level. It would take a substantial supply hit, such as a sustained disruption to production in Saudi Arabia or southern Iraq, or perhaps the closure of a shipping lane, for a risk premium to enter the market for any length of time.

After all, “the oil market remains well supplied with ample stocks and a healthy spare capacity cushion,” said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM, in a Reuters report.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.



CEO says Bank of America aims to ‘double’ its U.S. consumer market share: FT By Reuters



(Reuters) – Brian Moynihan, the chief executive officer of Bank of America Corp (N:), has said the bank could double its consumer market share in the United States despite fears about the power of the country’s largest banking institutions.

“Our market share in consumer is probably 12, 13, 14 percent, depending on who counts . …  The reality is, you could double that,” Moynihan said https://on.ft.com/2NEtMda in an interview with the Financial Times, pointing out that some auto, soft drink and beer companies had massively more consumer share than Bank of America.

Moynihan did not provide a time frame in his interview for doubling the bank’s consumer market share.

“If we do a good job for the customers and clients and we’re fair in our pricing, I think that’s good because  …  the scale that we have enables us to do more for the customers,” he was quoted as saying, when asked whether greater concentration in banking was good for customers or likely to garner more scrutiny from regulators.

With deposits growing above the industry rate, a low risk loan portfolio and a strong balance sheet with billions in excess liquidity, the pieces were in place for the bank to continue taking market share, he told the FT.

The CEO of the Charlotte, North Carolina-based lender added that he would not look overseas for retail growth, as it would take years for the bank to achieve a market share capable of giving it material deposits or revenue.

Bank of America is the second largest bank in the United States, with consumer banking its biggest business.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.



CEO says Bank of America aims to ‘double’ its U.S. consumer market share: FT


FILE PHOTO: Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan attends the World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, January 22, 2019. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann

(Reuters) – Brian Moynihan, the chief executive officer of Bank of America Corp (BAC.N), has said the bank could double its consumer market share in the United States despite fears about the power of the country’s largest banking institutions.

“Our market share in consumer is probably 12, 13, 14 percent, depending on who counts . …  The reality is, you could double that,” Moynihan said on.ft.com/2NEtMda in an interview with the Financial Times, pointing out that some auto, soft drink and beer companies had massively more consumer share than Bank of America.

Moynihan did not provide a time frame in his interview for doubling the bank’s consumer market share.

“If we do a good job for the customers and clients and we’re fair in our pricing, I think that’s good because  …  the scale that we have enables us to do more for the customers,” he was quoted as saying, when asked whether greater concentration in banking was good for customers or likely to garner more scrutiny from regulators.

With deposits growing above the industry rate, a low risk loan portfolio and a strong balance sheet with billions in excess liquidity, the pieces were in place for the bank to continue taking market share, he told the FT.

The CEO of the Charlotte, North Carolina-based lender added that he would not look overseas for retail growth, as it would take years for the bank to achieve a market share capable of giving it material deposits or revenue.

Bank of America is the second largest bank in the United States, with consumer banking its biggest business.

Reporting by Bhargav Acharya in Bengaluru; Editing by Peter Cooney



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China will increase imports from U.S. according to ‘market principles’: official By Reuters



BEIJING (Reuters) – China will negotiate with American companies and increase imports of U.S. goods and products according to market principles, an official with its state planner said on Sunday.

The United States has high quality supply in the fields of energy, manufactured goods, agricultural products, medical care and financial services, said Meng Wei, spokesperson for China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), at a press conference on Sunday.

China will boost purchases of U.S. goods and services by $200 billion over two years in exchange for the rolling back of some tariffs under an initial trade deal between the world’s two largest economies.

Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, who signed the trade deal with U.S. President Donald Trump earlier this week, said the deal would not affect “third parties’ interests”, apparently in reference to deals made with other suppliers of farm goods.

Chinese companies will import U.S. agricultural goods according to consumers’ need, and demand and supply in the market, Liu told reporters, according to CCTV.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.



Oil Hits 5-Week Low as U.S. Refiners Shock Market With Product Builds By Investing.com


© Reuters.

By Barani Krishnan

Investing.com – U.S. oil refiners seem to be on a mission to produce like never before and that’s taking the floor out of oil. Crude prices sunk to five-week lows on Wednesday after U.S. government data showed petroleum stockpiles rose by 14 million barrels for a second week in a row.

Adding to the bearish supply theme was production, which finally hit the much-anticipated 13 million barrels per day record high last week, and OPEC’s monthly report anticipating higher global supply going forth.

New York-traded , the benchmark for U.S. crude,settled down 42 cents, or 0.7%, at $57.81 per barrel. It fell to a five-week low of $57.38 earlier.

London-traded , the global crude benchmark, settled down 49 cents, or 0.8%, at $64. Earlier, it touched a five-week low of $63.56. That bottom came just a week after Brent’s four-month high of $71.22, struck after Iranian missiles hit U.S.-Iraqi airbases.

Crude pulled back losses as President Donald Trump began speaking ahead of the signing of the U.S.-China phase one deal, where officials announced that Beijing would purchase $200 billion of U.S. goods and services over the next year, including $50 billion for energy. China is the world’s largest buyer of oil and the United States is the largest producer of the commodity.

Oil prices initially slumped after the U.S. Energy Information Administration said across the country fell by 2.55 million barrels for the week ended Jan. 10. Analysts were looking for drop of 474,000 barrels.

jumped by about 6.7 million barrels, compared with expectations for a build of about 3.4 million barrels, the EIA said.

, meanwhile, soared by about 8.2 million barrels, versus expectations for a rise of about 1.2 million barrels, the agency said. It was the biggest weekly build in distillates since September 2017.

On a net basis, petroleum products, including crude, were up 14.5 million barrels for the week ended Jan. 10. after a 14.2-million rise for the previous week to Jan. 3.

“The crude build announced by the EIA might have much bigger than expected, but the products builds, especially distillates, was truly eye-watering,” said Tariq Zahir, managing member at the oil-focused Tyche Capital Advisors in New York.

The products build came despite refinery runs staying at their recent trend of 92% of capacity amid imports north of 6.5 million barrels, which again wasn’t unusual.

production, meanwhile, hit an all-time high of 13 million barrels per day after staying at around 12.9 million for several weeks.

OPEC, meanwhile, raised its non-OPEC supply growth forecast for 2020 by 180,000 barrels a day to 2.35 million barrels, citing upward revisions to supply in Norway, Mexico, and Guyana.