Dollar creeps higher as virus worries return By Reuters


© Reuters.

By Tom Westbrook

SINGAPORE (Reuters) – The dollar found a footing on Wednesday as investors returned to safe-havens, unwinding some risk currency gains made on hopes the coronavirus crisis in Europe and New York was slowing.

The greenback rose on most majors besides the safe-haven Japanese yen, a day after suffering its worst drop against a basket of currencies in nearly two weeks.

Safe-haven gains were slight but gathered pace in morning trade as the two-day rally in Asia’s equity markets lost steam and bonds and gold firmed. [MKTS/GLOB]

The U.S. currency rose most against the risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars, gaining about 0.5% on each to sit at $0.6142 per and $0.5951 per . [AUD/]

“Risk aversion and the U.S. dollar are going hand in hand,” said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank in Sydney.

“Improvement has been based on less-bad statistics coming out of various parts of the world…but our view is that markets are going to remain choppy – we can’t expect an uninterrupted flow of singularly good or singularly bad news.”

The dollar edged 0.1% lower to 108.55 yen . It rose a fraction against the British pound to $1.2321 and euro () to $1.0878.

The Aussie was also knocked by ratings agency S&P downgrading the outlook on the sovereign AAA rating from stable to negative.

New York overnight reported 731 fatalities from COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the virus, the sharpest single-day spike, but state Governor Andrew Cuomo drew hope from an apparent levelling off in the number of hospitalisations.

Across the Atlantic, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who has the illness, is in intensive care for a second night although his condition is stable.

Elsewhere in Europe, Spain’s daily toll of coronavirus deaths rose for the first time in five days, but officials there and across the continent pushed forward with plans to begin lifting some lockdown measures soon.

In Asia, the dollar rose 0.5% against the Korean won and lifted from a three-week low against the – rising 0.1% to 7.0730 yuan in offshore trade . [CNY/]

Investors are keenly watching as lockdowns lift in Wuhan, China, the epicentre of the pandemic, for clues as to how the rest of the world may fare when the worst has passed.

Authorities are walking a fine line between allowing greater freedom of movement and preventing a second wave of infection, with particular concern people who show no symptoms but can still pass on the virus.

Later on Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve releases minutes from its emergency meeting last month, which may include more commentary on the depth of the economic contraction that looms.

“While the virus’ curve is flattening, the economic effects of the corona crisis will linger for years,” said Commonwealth Bank of Australia currency analyst Joe Capurso.

“Economies will take time to re‑open, some businesses will not re-open, and unemployment will take years to (recover).  We think that means the dollar and yen will re-strengthen.”

Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://graphics.reuters.com/GLOBAL-CURRENCIES-PERFORMANCE/0100301V041/index.html





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Dollar Weakens as Risk Sentiment Improves By Investing.com


© Reuters.

By Peter Nurse

Investing.com – The dollar has been on the back foot Tuesday, with risk sentiment boosted by further evidence that the virus has peaked in some countries in Europe, while the U.S. has also seen scattered evidence of improvement.

At 3:10 AM ET (0710 GMT), the , which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, stood at 100.235, down 0.5%, with the , and all rising over 1%. fell 0.3% to 108.88, while rose 0.6% to 1.0859. gained 0.7% to 1.2316 even as Prime Minister Boris Johnson was moved into intensive care overnight due to his worsening COVID-19 symptoms.

Spain’s daily death toll fell on Monday for the fourth day running to 637, its lowest level since March 24, while Italy reported 525 deaths on Sunday, the fewest since March 19 (although deaths ticked up again on Monday). In New York, the epicenter of the outbreak in the U.S., Governor Andrew Cuomo said Monday that the state’s death rate has been ‘effectively flat for the last two days.’

The euro will be in focus later as eurozone finance ministers hold a teleconference call to discuss strategies for funding the region’s policy response to the virus.  Various ideas and schemes are competing for attention, but the desire of Spain and Italy for jointly-issued and guaranteed ‘coronabonds’ is likely to be rejected by Germany, the Netherlands and others. 

The price of oil has become another factor impacting the strength of the dollar. 

“USD and oil have become an increasingly uneven relationship with US oil production now a key liability for USD,” said Danske Bank, in a research note. 

Looking at Thursday’s meeting of the major crude producers to discuss a reduction of supply, “we think risks are tilted towards a disappointment and expect to stay sub-USD40/bbl. This could fuel USD/JPY moving towards 106 again near term,” Danske added.

 By extension, “we generally also find it too early for commodity currencies to see a forceful recovery, even if NOK remains an exception due to notably its fiscal support,” Danske added.

At 3:10 AM ET, dropped 1.4% to 10.2866, while the price of Brent rose 3.1% to $34.09 a barrel.

The dollar also gave up ground against most emerging market currencies, with the rising around half a percent. 

 

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.





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Dollar borrowing costs drop to lowest in decade in FX swap markets By Reuters


© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Photo illustration of one hundred dollar notes in Seoul

By Saikat Chatterjee

LONDON (Reuters) – Dollar borrowing costs in the foreign exchange swap markets retreated further on Monday, with swap rates against the euro and pound falling to their lowest levels in more than a decade.

These moves indicate recent emergency actions by global central banks have managed to squelch a growing dollar shortage in these markets.

Costs dropped after the U.S. Federal Reserve stepped in, first renewing swap lines with major central banks, then extending similar facilities to other central banks, and finally establishing a new temporary ‘repo’ facility.

“Policies put in place to settle markets have created new distortions of their own,” Natwest market strategists said in a note. “Judging from cross-currency basis swaps, there has been a swing from an acute dollar shortage to an oversupply.”

Dollar borrowing rates via the 3-month euro-dollar FX swap fell to a 12-year low of minus 65 bps, indicating that European borrowers are able to borrow greenback at a discount. This rate had swung to a 2011 European crisis-era high of more than 150 bps two weeks earlier.

Similarly, borrowing costs against the pound in the 3-month sterling-dollar FX swap market also fell to a 12-year lows of minus 42 bps. Three-month dollar-yen swaps also also fell its lowest level in eight years at minus 30 bps, according to Refinitiv data.

However the reversal in the currency swaps market was not reflected in other corners of the derivative markets with 2008 financial crisis era indicators such as FRA-OIS spreads , still stuck near multi-year highs, partly a reflection of a broad demand for dollars among companies.

Strategists at the Bank for International Settlements, an umbrella group for the world’s central banks, said last week there is a need to ensure dollar funds remain available to firms that are enmeshed in global supply chains and in constant need of working capital.

More broadly, the reduction in dollar borrowing pressures in FX swaps did little to halt the greenback’s rise. The () was broadly firm on Monday after rising 2.5% last week.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.





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Canadian dollar forecasts slashed, bracing for recession: Reuters poll By Reuters


© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A Canadian dollar coin, commonly known as the “Loonie”, is pictured in this illustration picture taken in Toronto

By Fergal Smith

TORONTO (Reuters) – The Canadian dollar is set to remain at depressed levels over the coming months, with analysts in a Reuters poll slashing their forecasts for the currency as the coronavirus pandemic potentially pushes Canada’s economy into a deep recession.

The has plunged more than 8% since the start of the year, with much of that decline coming over the past month, as the coronavirus outbreak interrupted global economic activity and major oil producers began a price war.

Canada’s economy could be hit particularly hard because it is a major exporter of commodities, including oil, and Canadians carry record debt loads.

“Forecasting is fraught with perils right now as no one really knows how long the virus-related lockdown will last,” said George Davis, chief technical strategist at RBC Capital Markets. “We believe that the Canadian economy will enter a recession in the first half of this year.”

Davis sees second-quarter gross domestic product plunging at an annualized rate of 18% after an estimated 3% contraction for the economy in the first quarter.

The poll of over 30 currency analysts showed they expect the Canadian dollar to weaken only slightly to 1.42 per U.S. dollar, or 70.42 U.S. cents, in three months, from about 1.4175 on Thursday. In March’s poll, the 3-month forecast was 1.32.

But the loonie is then expected to rebound, with strategists forecasting 1.37 in one year.

“We are more optimistic over the longer term for the loonie,” said Hendrix Vachon, a senior economist at Desjardins.

By the summer “the recovery should be strong enough to reduce significantly the level of uncertainty and to fuel demand for currencies such as the Canadian dollar,” Vachon said.

Ottawa is rolling out more than C$200 billion in support for Canada’s economy, including direct aid to Canadians, wage subsidies for businesses, loan programs and tax deferrals, while the Bank of Canada has slashed interest rates to nearly zero and launched a large-scale asset purchase program, quantitative easing, for the first time.

Should oil prices recover, that could also support the loonie.

“Our energy analyst is expecting a decent pick-up when we look towards year-end, with a target of 50 bucks,” said Christian Lawrence, a senior market strategist at Rabobank. “That is CAD positive longer term.”

Oil has recovered some ground since Monday, when it hit an 18-year low at $19.27 a barrel, on hopes that Russia and Saudi Arabia will announce a major oil production cut.

(Polling by Sujith Pai, Indradip Ghosh and Khushboo Mittal in BENGALURU, Editing by Ross Finley and Angus MacSwan)

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.





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Dollar strength consolidates as global recession looms By Reuters


© Reuters. A trader shows U.S. dollar notes at a currency exchange booth in Karachi

By Tom Westbrook

SINGAPORE (Reuters) – The dollar edged toward an almost 2% weekly rise on Friday, boosted by a surge in the oil price and as investors sought safety amid the worsening economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.

The gains consolidate the dollar’s strength after a topsy-turvy end to last month, which had the dollar soaring in a scramble for cash, then slumping as the U.S. Federal Reserve flooded the market with liquidity.

The largest ever daily gain in prices helped the greenback to its best day in two weeks against the euro overnight, since the United States is the world’s top oil and gas producer.

It held that ground to stand at $1.0838 per euro () on Friday – ahead 2.7% for the week. Against a basket of currencies () the dollar is up 1.8% for the week so far at 100.210, its best performance since mid-March.

Moves in Asian trade were slight since traders are bracing for bad news when monthly U.S. payrolls data is published at 1230 GMT.

The coronavirus pandemic is worsening in the United States and as lockdowns extend, weekly jobless claims already soared to a massive 6.6 million last week.

The dollar was firmer against most other major currencies, last trading at $0.6054 per Australian dollar , $0.5903 per New Zealand dollar and $1.2376 per pound .

It bought 108.00 Japanese yen .

“The U.S. labour market has more or less collapsed,” said Commonwealth Bank of Australia currency analyst Joe Capurso.

“The increase in the dollar because of the poor U.S. economic data reflects the dollar’s status as a counter‑cyclical currency.  It lifts when the global economy deteriorates, even if the deterioration in the global economy is the U.S.”

CBA forecasts a 200,000 drop in employment, higher than the median estimate of a 100,000 drop according to a Reuters’ survey of economists – though like most, they expect far worse to come as the data catches up to the damage in the real economy.

Global coronavirus cases surpassed 1 million on Thursday, with more than 52,000 deaths as the pandemic spread further in the United States and the death toll climbed in Spain and Italy, according to a Reuters tally of official data.

Japanese bank Nomura expects the world economy contracted 18% in the first quarter, on an annualised basis, and is tracking toward shrinking 4% in 2020.

The overnight 21% surge in the price of crude oil futures () to $29.94 gave fleeting support to commodity currencies, especially the oil-exposed Norwegian krone , which hit a three-week high, and Canadian dollar . [O/R]

Flows out of just about every asset in emerging markets in to the dollar continue, with MSCI’s emerging market currency index () sitting not far above three-year lows touched last month. [EMRG/FRX]

“Until the virus peaks, we anticipate the selling pressure will prevail and capital outflows will continue, although the biggest wave may have occurred in March,” said Piotr Matys, senior emerging markets FX Strategist at Rabobank in London.

“If a synchronised global recession transforms into depression, then all bets will be off.”

Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://graphics.reuters.com/GLOBAL-CURRENCIES-PERFORMANCE/0100301V041/index.html





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Forex – U.S. Dollar Strengthens as Oil Prices Come Off Record Session By Investing.com


© Reuters.

By Gina Lee

Investing.com – The U.S. dollar surged in Asia on Friday as crude oil prices came off a record session.

prices jumped almost 25% as U.S. President Trump hinted at a possible resolution to the Saudi Arabia – Russia price war yesterday.

The  that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies gained 0.04% to 100.31 by 11:32 AM ET (04:32 GMT).

Meanwhile, the United States faces record unemployment rates due to the COVID-19 epidemic as it announced overnight that 6.648 million people in the country claimed unemployment.

“The U.S. labor market has more or less collapsed,” Joe Capurso,  Commonwealth Bank of Australia currency analyst, said to CNBC.

“The increase in the dollar because of the poor U.S. economic data reflects the dollar’s status as a counter-cyclical currency. It lifts when the global economy deteriorates, even if the deterioration in the global economy is the U.S.,” he added.

The  pair was up 0.01% to 107.92.

Down Under, the  pair gained 0.09% to 0.6065 whilst the pair slid 0.12% to 0.5909.

The  pair gained 0.1% to 7.0890, and the  pair slid 0.14% to 1.2374.

As the World Health Organization said that the number of global COVID-19 cases exceeded 900,000 as of April 2, investors continue to bide their time.

Until the virus peaks, we anticipate the selling pressure will prevail and capital outflows will continue, although the biggest wave may have occurred in March,” Piotr Matys, senior emerging markets FX Strategist at Rabobank, told CNBC.

“If a synchronized global recession transforms into depression, then all bets will be off,” he added.

Japanese bank Nomura said in a note that it expects the world economy to contract by 18% in the first quarter, on an annualized basis, and is set to shrink about 4% in 2020.  

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.





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Dollar Still in Demand, For Now By Investing.com


© Reuters.

By Peter Nurse

Investing.com – The dollar was in demand in early trading in Europe on Friday, as investors sought safety following the dire U.S. unemployment figures which illustrated the extent of the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.

At 3:05 AM ET (0705 GMT), the , which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, rose above 100 for the first time in over a week to stand at 100.460, up 0.2% on the day and up some 0.6% on the week. fell 0.3% to 1.0823, while rose 0.2% to 1.2367. climbed 0.1% to 108.02.

The outbreak of the pandemic has caused developed economies to virtually close down as governments attempt social distancing policies to stem the spreading of the virus.

Further evidence of the damage associated with these policies emerged in the United States Thursday, with an unprecedented number of workers – 6.6 million – filing jobless claims.

At the same time, the pandemic has shown few signs of abating Friday, with global cases surpassing one million, with more than 53,000 deaths, over 6,000 of which were in the U.S.

“The U.S. labor market has more or less collapsed,” said Commonwealth Bank of Australia currency analyst Joe Capurso, in a Reuters report.

“The increase in the dollar because of the poor U.S. economic data reflects the dollar’s status as a counter‑cyclical currency. It lifts when the global economy deteriorates, even if the deterioration in the global economy is the U.S.”

There’s more U.S. employment data to come at 8:30 AM ET (12:30 GMT), in the form of the for March. However, this was from the week of March 12, before any major U.S. state had gone into lockdown, and thus is likely to only have a limited impact.

Adding to the dollar’s appeal has been the sudden rebound in the price of oil, although Thursday’s sharp gains have been sold into early Friday. Oil is priced in dollars and the U.S. is also the world’s top oil and gas producer.

“The USD has once again proven to be King in times of crisis,” said analyst Andreas Steno Larsen at Nordea, in a research note, “probably as most debt is still denominated in USDs, which means that USDs are sought after when liquidity tightens globally as has been the case due to the corona lockdowns.”

However, the dollar could be hammered as soon as we approach a reopening of the economy, he warned.

“USD liquidity is sprayed at every single scarce corner of the market now. This is ultimately going to kill the USD momentum; it is just a matter of time in our opinion,” Larsen said.

The dollar “could face a hit of >15% over the coming 12-24 months if the global economy gets out of the woods in the meanwhile.”

 

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.





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U.S. Dollar Rises on Back of Economic Uncertainty By Investing.com


© Reuters.

Investing.com  The U.S dollar rose in Asia on Thursday as investors continued to look for safe havens.

The , which tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies, rose 0.01% to 99.761 by 11:16 AM ET (4:16 AM GMT).

U.S President Donald Trump warned Americans to brace for a “rough two weeks” overnight as the World Health Organization said that the number of global COVID-19 cases topped 800,000 as of April 1.

Data prepared by Investing.com predicts that another 3.5 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits as the U.S. announces its weekly initial jobless claims later today.

“If America’s optimistic president is warning the worst of the pandemic is yet to come, what factory in their right mind would keep the doors open and workers on the payroll?” Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank, asked in a CNBC interview.

“With only a few actual data points so far, the results indicate this is looking more like a depression than a garden-variety recession, he added.

The pair was down 0.33% to 107.5.

“As we’ve seen yesterday, a deterioration in the U.S. economic outlook is likely to lead to strength in the yen against the U.S. dollar,” Shin-ichiro Kadota, senior strategist at Barclays (LON:)said to CNBC.

Down Under, the pair lost 0.02% to 0.6069 whilst the NZD/USD pair gained 0.2% to 0.5917.

Meanwhile, the pair lost 0.1% to 7.1056 and the pair gained 0.02% to 1.2378.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.





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U.S. dollar still favored on gloomy global economic outlook: Reuters poll By Reuters



By Hari Kishan and Rahul Karunakar

BENGALURU (Reuters) – The U.S. dollar will hold sway in the near term, driven by demand for safe assets on a worsening global economic outlook, with other major currencies are at best expected to regain lost ground over the coming year, a Reuters poll found.

The rout in financial markets and near-certain global recession caused by the coronavirus pandemic has caused a scramble to secure dollar funds. That blew up the cost to borrow dollars in funding markets, with three-month FX swap spreads rising to 2008 financial-crisis levels last month.

But those spreads have snapped back after the Federal Reserve’s effort to improve dollar liquidity by making it easier for other central banks to swap their currencies for dollars, pushing speculators to cut their bets in favor of the dollar in the latest week.

“As markets fret anew about the scale of global dollar liabilities, I am impressed by the Fed’s resolve. The exorbitant privilege that the dollar affords the U.S. has a sting in its tail and the Fed is on the scorpion’s case,” said Kit Juckes, macro strategist at Societe Generale (PA:).

“I fancy the Fed to win this one in the end. ‘In the end’, though, doesn’t mean today, and there’s an army of dollar bulls out there taking the other side at the moment.”

The demand for safe-haven assets has pushed the dollar () to rise about 3.5% so far this year and register its best first-quarter performance since 2015.

While the Fed’s monetary policy easing should keep the dollar from surging, the dire economic outlook – confirmed by Reuters polls of economists, fixed-income strategists and long-term investors – was expected to keep the dollar’s gains this year intact in the near term. [ECILT/WRAP] [US/INT] [ASSET/WRAP]

“The global economy is heading into a recession due to the coronavirus and the USD should continue to outperform the most exposed currencies to global trade,” said Roberto Cobo Garcia, FX strategist at BBVA (MC:).

In response to an additional question, about 45% of analysts, 27 of 63, said the dollar would stay around current levels or trade within a range over the next three months. Twenty analysts forecast the dollar would fall; the remaining 16 said they expect it to rise.

“The dollar will do well all year against all the currencies that are dependent on growth. Long dollar trades are best against those overly-dependent on oil exports and the most growth-sensitive currencies – a long list, mostly emerging markets,” said Societe Generale’s Juckes.

“Economists’ forecasts are increasingly being revised in appreciation of how bad the short-term hit is going to be. After that, we’ll get the realization that while you can turn the lights off quickly in a crisis, getting them back on again is a slower business.”

But in a year from now, analysts predict, the dollar will weaken against most major currencies. That is a consensus view they have held as a group for nearly three years now, and so far, an incorrect one.

The euro, which has lost over 2% so far this year, was forecast to take back those losses to trade at $1.13 by this time in 2021.

But in the near term, the common currency, along with sterling and the Canadian dollar, were predicted to be the worst performers against the dollar in April, driven by its safe-haven status.

“We view the U.S. dollar a safe haven based on the fact that it is the world’s reserve currency and also there is an opportunity to hold Treasury debt as a high quality liquid asset – which has been outperforming and should continue to do so,” said James Orlando, senior economist at TD.

The stampede into dollars has hurt most emerging-market currencies, including the Brazilian real, the South African rand and the Russian rouble, which have lost about a quarter of their value and dropped to record lows. [EMRG/POLL]

Asked which emerging-market currencies will be the hardest hit in April against the dollar, a majority of analysts who responded chose those three currencies.

The Indian rupee, which fell to a record low on Wednesday, was expected to remain weak, with a significant minority of respondents predicting it would depreciate beyond that recent record low at some point over the next year. [INR/POLL]

Reuters poll graphic on U.S. dollar outlook https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/polling/dgkvlxrevbx/Reuters%20Poll%20US%20dollar%20outlook.PNG

(Polling by Khushboo Mittal, Sujith Pai and Indradip Ghosh; editing by Ross Finley, Larry King)



Dollar Edges Lower; Petro Currencies Gain on Trump Comments By Investing.com


© Reuters.

By Peter Nurse

Investing.com – The dollar edged lower in European trading Thursday, with investors seemingly prepared to move out of the safe haven into riskier currencies ahead of key U.S. unemployment data.

At 3 AM ET (0700 GMT), the , which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, stood at 99.640, down 0.1%. fell 0.2% to 1.0939, while rose 0.3% to 1.2418. climbed 0.1% to 107.28.

The outbreak of the pandemic has caused developed economies to virtually close down as governments attempt social distancing policies to stem the spreading of the virus.

The starkest evidence of the economic damage caused came last week when weekly U.S. initial jobless claims, one of the earliest gauges of economic trends, jumped to 3.28 million, blowing past the previous record of 695,000 set in 1982.

This week’s are released at 8:30 AM ET (1230 GMT), with another 3.5 million claims expected. 

Obviously these are poor numbers, but if there can be a positive slant, it may be that a large number of claims means that displaced workers are availing themselves of the backstop support provided in the stimulus bill. That would keep much-needed disposable income in the economy.

Additionally, the price of oil climbed sharply Thursday after President Donald Trump stated late Wednesday that Russia and Saudi Arabia would make a deal to end their price war within a “few days”.

Global oil prices have fallen by roughly two-thirds this year, hitting hard the finances of the countries that depend on oil revenue for funding.

At 3:00 AM ET, traded 1.6% lower at 10.23.23, while dropped 1.4% to 77.63. Russia spent 5% of its reserves defending the ruble in the week to March 20. Data for last week are due later Thursday.

Some vulnerable emerging market currencies have come under extreme pressure recently as wide current account deficits, low credit ratings and limited foreign currency reserves heighten capital flight risks.

The South African hit record lows while the Turkish sank to a two-year low. Thursday’s more positive tone has allowed these to post small recoveries.

At 3 AM ET (0710 GMT), traded 0.3% lower at 18.15 and was 0.5% lower at 6.6623.

 

 

 

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.





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