Trump says there is a ‘really good chance’ of U.S.-China trade deal By Reuters



WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President Donald Trump said on Wednesday there was a very good chance that the United States and China will reach a trade agreement.

Speaking to reporters a day before high-level trade talks resume in Washington, Trump said: “If we can make a deal, we’re going to make a deal, there’s a really good chance.”

“In my opinion China wants to make a deal more than I do,” he said.

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Trump sees ‘very good chance’ of China trade deal, says no link to Biden probe request By Reuters



By David Lawder and Lisa Lambert

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday that his administration has a “very good chance” of making a trade deal with China, and insisted there were no links between China talks and his desire for Beijing to investigate Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden.

Trump, speaking to reporters before departing the White House, said negotiations to end the U.S. trade war with China were separate from any investigation into Biden, whom Trump has accused of foreign corruption.

“One thing has nothing to do with the other,” the Republican president said when asked whether he would be more likely to make a deal with China if it investigated Biden. “I want to do a trade deal with China, but only if it’s good for our country.”

Top-level U.S.-China trade talks are scheduled to resume next Thursday and Friday, when Chinese Vice Premier Liu He meets with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin in Washington

The talks will be preceded on Monday and Tuesday by deputy-level discussions, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said earlier.

Trump has waged a two-year effort to change China’s trade, intellectual property and industrial policy practices, which he has long said are unfair and have cost millions of U.S. jobs.

His administration is seeking stronger protections of U.S. intellectual property, an end to forced transfers of American technology to Chinese firms, curbs to industrial subsidies and increased access to China’s largely closed domestic markets.

In a trade war that has lasted 15 months, the United States and China have heaped hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs

“I view China as somebody we’re trying to make a deal with, we have a very good chance of making a deal with,” Trump said. Right now, we’re in a very important stage in terms of possibly making a deal. If we make it, it will be the biggest trade deal ever made.”

On Thursday Trump publicly urged Beijing to investigate Biden, a Democrat, again raising concerns that he has invited foreign interference in the U.S. presidential election. Last week Trump released a transcript of a call where he asked Ukraine’s president to also look into Biden, a request that has triggered an impeachment inquiry by House of Representatives Democrats.

FINANCIAL SERVICES HOPES

Kudlow, in television interviews, held out hope for progress in opening China’s financial services markets to American companies in next week’s talks, adding the U.S. team was heading into them “open-minded.”

“Everything’s on the table, we’d love to go back to where we were in May when we were a lot closer,” Kudlow told Bloomberg TV.

The Trump trade team hoped to revisit a mostly agreed text from which China had backtracked in May, causing talks to break down, he said.

The text at that time included an agreement negotiated by Mnuchin that involved the lifting of foreign ownership caps on financial services firms in China.

“I’m not giving you news. I’m just saying we had some pretty good things last spring, like financial services opening – that could be extended,” Kudlow said in a subsequent interview on Fox Business Network. “I say ‘could’ and the president would have to sign off on it, but don’t rule out the possibility of good news.”

Kudlow declined to make any predictions about the talks but said there had been a “softening of the psychology on both sides” over the past month, with the United States delaying some tariff increases and China making some modest purchases of American farm products.

Kudlow also said the impeachment inquiry was unlikely to affect the trade talks with China.

“I don’t think that’s an impact right now. I think maybe it has only the tiniest, tiniest effect, maybe occasionally on stock market psychology,” Kudlow said.

However, he said the Trump administration continued to monitor freedom and democracy protests, which he said could have an impact on the talks, without specifying how. China-backed Hong Kong authorities have struggled to curb anti-government protests that have continued for four months.





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Brexit: Deutsche Bank still sees 50% chance of no-deal by year-end


FILE PHOTO: The logo of Deutsche Bank is pictured in London, Britain July 8, 2019. REUTERS/Simon Dawson/File Photo

LONDON (Reuters) – Deutsche Bank said on Wednesday it still sees a 50% chance that Britain will leave the European Union without a deal by the end of the year following a general election, but said there’s a 20% chance of a “surprise” agreement later this month.

It gave a 40% chance of a caretaker government being formed and a general election taking place.

Out of the two possible scenarios following that, the bank has a 25% probability of either an orderly Brexit, a second referendum or scrapping of Brexit altogether.

The alternative scenario, with a 15% chance, would be a no-deal Brexit resulting from the general election.

Reporting by Josephine Mason; editing by Marc Jones



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South Korea inflation expectations fall, raise chance of rate cut By Reuters



SEOUL (Reuters) – South Korean consumers’ inflation expectations fell to the lowest on record, a survey from the Bank of Korea (BOK) showed on Thursday, bolstering the chances for another rate cut in October.

Consumers’ median inflation expectations for the next 12 months fell to 1.8% in September, down from 2.0% in August and the lowest since the data was first released in February 2002.

The nation’s consumer price index was unchanged in August from a year earlier, the weakest pace since the country began releasing inflation data in 1965 and far below the central bank’s 2% target and annual forecast of 0.7%.

The composite consumer sentiment index, compiled from the same survey, edged up to 96.9 in September from 92.5 in August.

“The index sharply rebounded after falling for four months in a row as concerns over U.S.-China trade tensions eased (earlier this month),” a central bank official told reporters on Wednesday, but added that future trends will likely depend on how global events develop such as the Sino-U.S. trade war.

The composite reading stands below 100, meaning that consumer sentiment is weaker than the long-term average, which currently covers 2003-2018.

The official also said the impact from the recent outbreak of African swine fever in South Korea is not reflected in the data yet. The first case was reported on Sept. 17 while the survey was carried out from Sept. 10 to 17.

The BOK is widely expected to lower rates at its next meeting on Oct. 16, after holding fire at its last meeting in August. The central bank surprised markets with a cut in July, the first reduction in three years.

S&P Global Ratings chief economist Shaun Roache told Reuters on Tuesday that deflation pressure was the biggest domestic risk facing South Korea’s economy, adding that he expected two more rate cuts by early next year.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.



Gold Prices Hold Gains, Despite U.S. GDP Hit to Chance of Big Fed Rate Cut By Investing.com


© Reuters.

Investing.com – Gold prices were still on the rise Friday even though better-than-expected U.S. growth cast doubt on the need for the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy dramatically.

for August delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, rose $4.95, or 0.4%, to $1,420.01 a troy ounce by 9:03 AM ET (13:03 GMT).

The advanced reading for second-quarter GDP saw growth in the U.S. slow from 3.1% in the first three months of the year to 2.1%, better than the expected drop to 1.8%.

Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, said the headline growth figure, personal consumption of 4.3% and core PCE of 1.8% were all good numbers.

“Remind me why the Fed needs to cut again?” he tweeted. “If the Fed does cut next week, I’m struggling to see how there won’t be some form of dissent.”

Markets have fully priced in expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on July 31, but speculation has been fluctuating over a more aggressive 50 basis-point cut.

Those odds fell to 19.4% after the data compared to 23.5% ahead of the release.

Fed funds futures still price expectations for a total of three rate cuts this year, though the probability dipped to 52.9% following the report.

The prospect of lower interest rates benefits non-yielding bullion.

In other metals trading, gained 0.6% to $16.503 a troy ounce by 9:05 AM ET (13:05 GMT).

were little changed at $1,533.25 an ounce, while sister metal dropped 0.2% to $872.30.

In base metals, traded down 0.4% to $2.694 a pound.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.



Trade War Hands China Chance to Globalize Yuan, Central Banker Says By Bloomberg


© Bloomberg. Genuine bundles of Chinese one-hundred yuan banknotes are arranged for a photograph at the Counterfeit Notes Response Center of KEB Hana Bank in Seoul, South Korea, on Friday, July 13, 2017. Yuan is set to slide for fifth week, longest losing streak since July 2016, as escalating U.S.-China trade tensions weigh on sentiment.

(Bloomberg) — The is being given a new opportunity to boost its global status amid rising trade conflicts, according to People’s Bank of China Deputy Governor Pan Gongsheng.

“Amid frequent trade frictions and rising populism, some countries and regions are emphasizing the use of local currency in cross-border settlement, bringing about new opportunities for the yuan’s globalization,” Pan wrote in an article published on the PBOC-backed China Finance magazine’s website.

The bank will work to promote global investors’ confidence in the yuan and steadily promote the currency’s global use — although it’ll be mostly a market-driven effort, he wrote.

For now, less than 2% of global transactions are settled in the yuan, according to data released by Swift, an international payment institution. The share fell back from a peak of 2.79% in August 2015, when the International Monetary Fund agreed to add the yuan into its reserve currency basket.

To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Yinan Zhao in Beijing at yzhao300@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Jeffrey Black at jblack25@bloomberg.net, Jiyeun Lee

©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.





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Oil Giants Note — Nigeria Now Has a Chance to Open Its Fields By Bloomberg


© Reuters. Oil Giants Note — Nigeria Now Has a Chance to Open Its Fields

(Bloomberg) — Investors’ 11-year wait for the Nigerian government to open up Africa’s biggest crude industry may be over.

An overhaul of oil policy that’s been in the works for more than a decade is among a raft of laws President Muhammadu Buhari could steer through parliament in his second term to help drive investment in the oil-dependent economy. The delays cost an estimated $15 billion a year in lost funding for the industry over the past decade, according to the Petroleum Ministry.

The ability to implement reforms would mark a departure from Buhari’s first four years in office, when he faced hostile leaders of both chambers of the legislature. Since his re-election in February, Buhari loyalists have taken over as the heads of the Senate and the House of Representatives.

“Expect an improved level of harmony between the National Assembly and the president going forward,” said Luke Ofojebe, an analyst at Lagos-based Vetiva Capital Ltd.

The urgency to get the oil reforms going was signaled by a July 4 meeting between the new Senate president, Ahmed Lawan, and head of Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:).’s Nigerian unit, Paul McGrath, where they discussed the quick passage of the bill.

“I promise Nigerians, as soon as we inaugurate our committee, they’ll start work on the Petroleum Industry Bill,” Lawan told reporters afterward. “This time around, we will work with every stakeholder in the industry.”

The reforms are needed to drive investment in oil exploration and production that have been withheld because of policy uncertainty. As a result, Nigeria’s crude output and reserves have stagnated over the past two decades, and targets to reach reserves of 40 billion barrels and output of 4 million barrels a day have been pushed back more than 15 years.

Unless new investment comes in, the government may have to cut spending and could struggle to service existing debt. The state relies on oil for two-thirds of government revenue and has failed to meet its income targets in the past three years mainly due to lower-than-expected crude volumes.

The reforms being considered include:

  • An intention to sell part of the state’s controlling stakes in joint ventures. Another initiative being considered is the conversion of the partnerships into incorporated entities, which would enable them to raise funding from financial markets.
  • Plans to introduce royalties and taxes for the first time on deep-water exploration — a proposal that has faced stiff opposition from oil companies including Exxon, Royal Dutch Shell (LON:) Plc, Chevron Corp. (NYSE:), Total SA (PA:) and Eni SpA, the state’s joint-venture partners.
  • Ensuring that the state derives more benefit from oil and gas contracts.
  • Addressing the root causes of violence in the oil-rich Niger River delta that has plagued the industry for more than two decades.

Even with all the reins now in his hands, some analysts still doubt there’ll be rapid progress, given Buhari’s inclination for state intervention rather than market reforms. When the economy was beset by falling revenue in 2016, the government imposed capital controls, banned certain imports and refused a currency devaluation amid a foreign-currency shortage.

“I don’t think the government is interested in any reform, judging by history,” said Robert Omotunde, an analyst at Lagos-based Afrinvest West Africa Ltd.

Foreign portfolio investors fled in the face of the interventionist measures, and only began to return when the central bank set up a market-determined trading window for exporters and importers. Confidence remains low. The Nigerian Stock Exchange Main-Board Index has declined 10% since the first trading day after Buhari’s re-election.

Delicate Negotiations

To arrive at a new law that satisfies the energy companies will take delicate negotiations in the coming months, given lawsuits filed by the government against joint-venture partners that accused them of taking more than their fair share of crude revenue.

Still, a more compliant legislature gives Buhari the muscle he needs to push his reform agenda through.

“It is more likely they will pass now more than ever because of the mutual suspicion with the leadership of the last National Assembly,” said Bismarck Rewane, chief executive officer of Lagos-based advisory Financial Derivatives Co. “When you remove that, it is more likely to be passed now.”



Chance of Singapore easing monetary policy rises as economy flatlines: poll By Reuters



By Fathin Ungku and Aradhana Aravindan

SINGAPORE (Reuters) – Singapore’s central bank is increasingly likely to ease monetary policy at its semi-annual meeting in October in a bid to boost an export-reliant economy being choked by the U.S.-China trade war, economists said on Friday.

Earlier on Friday, preliminary data showed Singapore had annual growth of just 0.1% in the second quarter, its slowest expansion in a decade and well below expectations – increasing the chances the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will act.

Seven of 11 economists polled by Reuters said they expect the MAS to loosen policy in October, with the other four forecasting no change.

One of the seven seeing looser policy ING, said in a note on Friday that a move by MAS might be “imminent”.

MAS said last month it was not considering changing monetary policy before its October meeting.

Steve Cochrane, economist at Moody’s Analytics, said “The U.S.-China trade war is continuing to have deep and long-lasting effects on the region.”

“Given the severity of this quarterly outcome, there is pressure for the MAS to ease monetary policy in October,” he said.

There is the growing prospect Singapore could slip into recession later this year with its core manufacturing sector being particularly badly affected by U.S.-China tensions.

Core inflation, another key consideration for the MAS, is at the lower end of its target band.

“We have got a very challenging external backdrop,” said Sian Fenner at Oxford Economics.

“With inflation still unlikely to be a barrier, we don’t see any reason why they (MAS) wouldn’t make some move to ease policy.”

The MAS tightened monetary policy twice last year in efforts to control rising price pressures and strengthen its currency – its first such tightening moves in six years.

The central bank manages monetary policy through exchange rate settings rather than interest rates, letting the Singapore dollar rise or fall against the currencies of its main trading partners within an undisclosed policy band.

The MAS can use several tools to change policy but most commonly it will adjust the so-called slope of this band, which determines the pace at which the currency can move.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.



Dollar steadies as strong U.S. inflation tempers chance of aggressive Fed rate cut By Reuters


© Reuters. Dollar steadies as strong U.S. inflation tempers chance of aggressive Fed rate cut

By Shinichi Saoshiro

TOKYO (Reuters) – The dollar was steady on Friday, having regained some traction against its peers after stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data tempered the prospect of an aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate cut later this month.

The core U.S. consumer price index excluding food and energy components rose 0.3% in June, the largest increase since January 2018, data on Thursday showed.

The signs of a pick-up in underlying inflation, along with separate data on weekly jobless claims showing the labor market remained solid, curbed financial market expectations of a more aggressive 50 basis point cut at the Fed’s July 30-31 meeting.

Markets are still fully priced for a quarter percentage point cut as U.S. policymakers seek to support a slowing economy.

The dollar was little changed at 108.490 yen after rebounding from a low of 107.860 plumbed on Thursday in response to dovish comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, which had revived the chance of a 50 basis-point cut.

“The dollar bounced back as the strong U.S. CPI got the market to question the Fed’s view on prices and whether inflation was really as weak as projected,” said Takuya Kanda, general manager at Gaitame.Com Research Institute.

“Expectations for a 50 basis point cut had risen after Powell’s comments but were lowered again by the CPI. Until the Fed’s meeting later this month, the prospect of a 50 basis point cut will continue ebbing back and forth on each major data release.”

The () against a basket of six major currencies stood little changed at 97.081 after retracing much of its losses on Thursday, when it had briefly stooped to a six-day low of 96.795.

The euro () was flat at $1.1254, having pulled back from a high of $1.1285 scaled on Thursday prior to the U.S. inflation data..

The Australian dollar dipped 0.05% to $0.6972 after gaining 0.2% the previous day.

The U.S. Treasury 10-year yield (), which often dictates the direction of the dollar, was at 2.134% after jumping 8 basis points overnight on the strong U.S. inflation data and a weak 30-year bond auction.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.





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Good Chance BOJ to Extend Rate Pledge in July, Ex-Official Says By Bloomberg


© Bloomberg. Haruhiko Kuroda

(Bloomberg) — The Bank of Japan needs to extend its pledge to keep extremely low rates and there’s a good chance it will tweak the time frame as soon as the July meeting, ahead of an expected Federal Reserve rate cut, according to a former central bank official.

“The BOJ is now putting weight on the importance of sending a strong message that it will firmly continue with monetary easing,” Kazuo Momma, a former executive director at the BOJ, said in an interview Tuesday.

For a central bank low on ammunition, changing the wording of its forward guidance on policy was a low-cost option to convey that message, he added, ruling out further easing moves in July. The BOJ clarified its guidance in April to commit to extremely low rates until at least around spring 2020 while it monitors the economic impact of a sales tax hike scheduled for October.

Traders Are Certain Fed Will Cut in July, But Unsure What’s Next

Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and his board will conclude a two-day policy meeting on July 30, the day before the Fed is expected to cut rates for the first time since 2008. While some analysts have flagged the risk of the yen rising sharply in response to a U.S. rate cut, Momma said a jump in the currency was unlikely given markets have already priced in a reduction.

Instead, the BOJ would want to extend its guidance to avoid market speculation about its commitment to keep rates low and there’s a good chance of this either in July or October, he said. If the bank waits until October to make the change, only about half a year will remain on the current promise to maintain low rates, so there is the “simple idea” of getting on with the change this month, Momma said.

Outlook Dependent

“The length of the extension will depend on the BOJ’s economic outlook,” said Momma, who led the crafting of the bank’s monetary policy for several years during more than three decades at the BOJ. “It will aggressively extend the guidance if it’s clear the global economy won’t pick up within six months,” he added.

The BOJ currently sees the economy recovering in the second half of this year.

An increasing number of BOJ watchers are forecasting the next policy step will be additional stimulus as the Fed cuts rates in light of global uncertainties, including the U.S.-China trade war. Six of 50 economists surveyed in June expected the BOJ to ramp up its easing this month.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.





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