Euro-Area Economic Growth Remains ‘Muted’ at Start of 2020 By Bloomberg


© Reuters. Euro-Area Economic Growth Remains ‘Muted’ at Start of 2020

(Bloomberg) — The euro-area economy continued to trundle along at the beginning of 2020, despite signs of a pickup in Germany.

IHS Markit’s for the region stayed at 50.9 in January, falling short of the 51.2 median forecast of economists. There was a drag from France, where strikes hit the sector, which offset an improvement in .

Weakness also persisted elsewhere in the region, with output growth there slowing to the lowest in six and half years. IHS Markit didn’t provide further details, and figures for other countries will only be available early next month.

The euro-area slipped slightly in January, while the index rose to a nine-month high of 47.8. That’s still at a level signalling contraction and the report also said factories continued to cut jobs.

On the upside, confidence across the private sector improved, thanks in part to a more upbeat manufacturing industry. Sentiment there jumped for a fifth month on hopes that the economy is past the worst of the recent downturn.

On Thursday, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde offered a similar view, saying that downside risks to the economic outlook are “somewhat less pronounced.”

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.



Copper Sees Worst Losing Streak Since 2018 on Virus Fears By Bloomberg



(Bloomberg) — Copper saw its worst streak of losses since mid-2018 as more patients were infected by the deadly coronavirus in the U.S., spurring a sell-off in riskier assets while boosting gold’s haven appeal.

U.S. officials are monitoring more than 60 people as they attempt to catch new cases of coronavirus in travelers from China, the center of the outbreak. Mounting concerns that the spreading deadly disease could further crimp global growth sent equities and commodities declining.

China, the world’s largest consumer of commodities including industrial metals, locked down Wuhan and its surrounding areas to contain the coronavirus, the first large-scale quarantine in modern times.

“If you all of a sudden take China off the board because you’re looking at shutting down mills and shutting down transportation to the mills, it’s going to hurt,” said Peter Thomas, a senior vice president at Chicago-based broker Zaner Group, said by phone.

Copper, often a barometer of global growth, fell 1.5% to settle at $2.684 a pound at 1:02 p.m. on the Comex in New York. March futures are down 6.6% since mid-January, the biggest seven-session loss for a most-active contract since July 11, 2018.

“We suspect that even more demand destruction fear is justified because the virus will also undermine Chinese sentiment and dampen the biggest shopping period of the Chinese calendar,” Phil Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, said on an emailed note.

The Bloomberg Industrial Metals Subindex Total Return, which tracks , aluminum, zinc and nickel, slipped 1.3%, poised for the steepest four-day decline since September 2018. The wider commodities gauge is set for the biggest weekly loss since December 2018.

The outbreak has also boosted bullion’s appeal as haven. Over the past five days, investors poured more than $1 billion into SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:), the largest exchange-traded fund backed by the metal.

On the Comex in New York, for April delivery rose, posting five straight weekly gains.

Story Link: BASE METALS: Copper Set for Worst Week Since 2018 on Virus Fears

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.



Oil Heads for Worst Week in a Year as Virus Selloff Deepens By Bloomberg



(Bloomberg) — Oil headed for its worst weekly slump in more than a year amid fears that China’s coronavirus will cripple fuel demand just as markets struggle with a fragile world economy and adequate supplies.

Futures sank as much as 2.9% in London to approach $60 a barrel for the first time since November as deaths from the coronavirus rose to 25 and China expanded travel restrictions for over 40 million people in an attempt to halt contagion. The U.S. is monitoring more than 60 people for potential infection, and lawmakers said health authorities are expected to confirm a third case.

The Asian virus has spooked traders even as the World Health Organization stopped short of declaring a global health emergency. The contagion is disrupting travel during the Lunar New Year holiday, when hundreds of millions normally fly or ride home. The selloff has accelerated as trend-following funds turned bearish, according to TD Securities.

“Contagion fears are spiking ahead of the biggest yearly migration ahead of new year,” says Daniel Ghali, a commodities strategist at TD Securities. “The fear factor is the risk of contagion, synonymous to what happened in 2003 with SARS which led to a 2% drop in Chinese economic growth.”

The fast-spreading virus is the latest challenge for a market that’s been buffeted this year by geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa, as well as the phase-one trade deal between Beijing and Washington. Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:). said earlier this week that, if the coronavirus has an impact similar to the 2003 SARS epidemic, demand could be curbed by 260,000 barrels a day.

See also: China’s Economy Was Brightening This Month Before Virus Fear Hit

for March settlement fell $1.54 to $60.50 a barrel on the ICE (NYSE:) Futures Europe exchange as of 1:05 p.m. in New York. Futures were on track for a weekly loss of 6.7%, the biggest since Dec. 21, 2018.

West Texas Intermediate futures for March delivery slipped $1.37 to $54.22 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Options traders are paying the most since Oct. 31 for protection against price swings, according to the CBOE/CME WTI volatility index.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.



How the Euro Could Defy Analysts and Options Market Ahead of Fed By Bloomberg



(Bloomberg) — Euro bulls may be looking at a longer wait before they can break free, with a compelling case that the shared currency may head lower into next week’s Federal Reserve monetary policy decision.

It comes in defiance of consensus views among analysts for the euro to rebound, an expectation also reflected by current pricing in the options market. The common currency slipped to a seven-week low of $1.1026 on Friday, at a time when the median estimate of analysts in a Bloomberg survey calls for a move to $1.1400 by end-June and sentiment through options remains bullish for the common currency. That’s turned the currency’s charts bearish in the short-term and may leave long positions looking exposed.

The euro failed to gain traction even after euro-area composite PMI data offered pockets of promise and the European Central Bank warned investors not to assume that policy is on autopilot mode. Momentum selling emerged earlier when the Governing Council’s meeting on Thursday didn’t offer signs that it was looking to tighten monetary policy soon.

Volatility in the euro fell to fresh record lows this week, a pattern that supports the case of it being used as a funding currency of choice for carry trades. That came as Europe became the focus of global trade relations, after U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said tariffs on auto imports from the European Union remained under consideration.

The main check point for the market next week is Wednesday’s Fed rate call. Any rebound for the euro may depend on U.S. monetary policy rhetoric sounding more-dovish-than expected. A strong aversion to riskier trades and the ongoing dominance of tight ranges in the spot market could also help.

But don’t forget that the Fed isn’t expected to cut interest rates any time soon and the hurdle remains high for officials to sound outright dovish as the latest data have positively surprised the market, undermining the chances for a euro boost. That leaves the shared currency’s bulls looking for traction elsewhere. Market jitters over the economic effects of a China-originated virus could prompt outflows out of emerging markets and back to the euro area.

Euro bulls’ best chance may be with short-term traders who look to fade dips as expectations for a large move next month stand at multi-year lows. Technically, the euro remains in a bearish trajectory below its 55-daily moving average, currently at $1.1095, and may target a move below $1.0950, which could satisfy the projection of a head and shoulders pattern that was completed this week.

A lower volatility environment has pressured the euro in the past two years, yet at the moment it is just what could offer some short-term relief.

What to Watch:

  • Chinese New Year Saturday; Italy holds local elections in the region of Emilia-Romagna the following day in the latest challenge for the ruling coalition
  • Fed Chairman Jerome Powell holds a news conference after the FOMC rate decision on Jan. 29; highly-anticipated Bank of England policy decision comes the next day; Governor Mark Carney to speak
  • Policy maker speeches coming up include Bank of Canada’s Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry and Riksbank Governor Stefan Ingves
  • Economic releases include euro area GDP and CPI; U.S. personal spending, GDP; Sweden retail sales and Norway unemployment; see data calendar
  • NOTE: Vassilis Karamanis is an FX and rates strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice
Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.





Source link

BOE Rate Cut Hangs in Balance Amid Signs of Election Bounce By Bloomberg



(Bloomberg) — A closely watched measure of U.K. economic activity unexpectedly surged to the highest level since 2018 in January, leaving the prospects for a Bank of England interest-rate cut next week hanging in the balance.

IHS Markit’s flash for output across the whole economy jumped to 52.4 as firms cited reduced political uncertainty in the wake of Boris Johnson’s decisive election victory. That’s up from 49.3 last month.

The Purchasing Managers Indexes had emerged as a key factor in the debate over BOE easing this month, providing the most up-to-date assessment of the economy after the Conservatives’ win on Dec. 12. While the reading was higher than forecast and above the level many economists said was enough to stave off a rate cut, traders were still pricing in a greater-than 50% chance of a move after the release and the was little changed.

The data was “marginal above the level of 52, where one could expect the Bank of England starting to become more reluctant to cut,” said Mikael Olai Milhoj, a Danske Bank analyst. A cut is “still a real possibility but a close call as things stand.”

One reason why the debate over the need for easing may not be over is that BOE officials have also indicated that reports from their agents — a cross-country network that holds confidential conversations with businesses and community organizations — could prove critical. Investors and forecasters will be in the dark about that intelligence until the decision is announced, when the accompanying Monetary Policy Report will include a section summarizing the feedback.

Markit said the Friday’s composite figure, which was up from 49.3 last month and came in well above the 50.7 median-estimate of economists, was consistent with a quarterly growth rate of about 0.2%. That’s good news for Johnson as he prepares to officially take the U.K. out of the European Union next week.

“It seems likely that the rise in the PMI kills off the prospect of an imminent rate cut, with policy makers taking a wait and see approach as they assess the performance of the economy in the post-Brexit environment,” said Chris Williamson, Markit’s chief business economist.

While a January rate cut was seen as unlikely at the start of 2020, a spate of weak data, along with dovish comments from policy makers, boosted speculation a move was coming. Bets moderated slightly this week after some more positive releases.

Two of the BOE’s nine officials have already voted for easing, while a number of others, including Governor Mark Carney, have indicated they would be paying close attention to the data before making up their minds.

“We think it’s a close call,” said Ned Rumpeltin, European head of foreign exchange at Toronto-Dominion Bank. “But ultimately we think the sum total of what we’ve seen in the UK’s recent data overall will be enough to motivate a cut next week.”

The PMIs, like a report earlier this week from the Confederation of British Industry, showed optimism among firms had jumped following the election, with Markit’s measure reaching the highest since June 2015. They also suggested the pickup may translate into real growth, with measures of new work rising strongly.

The flash readings, based on 85% of responses, showed a gauge for the U.K.’s dominant services sector alone jumped to a 16-month high of 52.9, from 50 last month. Meanwhile an index for manufacturing reached 49.8, up from 47.5 in December and approaching the 50 level that separates expansion from contraction. Final readings will be released in the first week of February

The PMIs have previously come under criticism for being overly sensitive to political developments, while Carney said last year that they can be a misleading indicator of economic output in times of extreme uncertainty.

For example, in the immediate aftermath of 2016’s Brexit vote, they presented a far gloomier picture of the economy than ultimately came to pass, a phenomenon that repeated itself last year.





Source link

Global LNG Poised for Terrible Year as New Supply Floods Market By Bloomberg



(Bloomberg) — Liquefied prices are poised to test record lows this year thanks to an onslaught of new supply and warmer winter temperatures curbing consumption.

The startup of new export projects from Australia to the U.S. has flooded the market, while brimming stockpiles in Europe and an expected slowdown in Chinese demand have dumped cold water on consumption prospects. LNG for spot delivery to North Asia is on track to hit an all-time low this summer, while gas prices in Europe and the U.S. are trading at the weakest seasonal levels since 1999.

“The global oversupply of LNG has been building and building and building,” said Ron Ozer, founder of gas-focused hedge fund Statar Capital LLC in New York. “The gas market can’t stomach the oversupply and warm weather, and it’s getting both.”

This is what the rock-bottom prices mean for the industry:

American Halt

U.S. gas exports have surged amid the nation’s shale boom, but plummeting prices may now throttle back shipments or encourage sustained maintenance while firms weather the storm. Producers and companies with offtake agreements may decide not to load cargoes because prices are too low to earn a profit after accounting for shipping costs.

With cargoes from the Gulf of Mexico currently priced around $2.65 per million Btu, cash margins are positive only because of weak U.S. benchmark prices, according to Robert Sims, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie Ltd. There’s a chance that production could be reduced if the spread between benchmark Henry Hub and U.S. Gulf LNG narrows 25 cents, he said. Torbjorn Tornqvist, chief executive officer of Gunvor Group Ltd., the biggest independent LNG trader, sees the market about 50 cents away from shut downs.

“I think we can see even lower prices in the next few months,” Tornqvist said in an interview this week in Davos. “The supply and demand balance doesn’t look good.”

Contract Scrutiny

Buyers may demand revisions to long-term supply contracts, such as better pricing or the removal of restrictions on reselling cargoes. Japan’s Osaka Gas Co. has already taken action, moving an Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:).-led LNG joint-venture to arbitration in a bid to get lower rates.

Qatar, one of the world’s biggest suppliers and traditionally the strictest when it comes to pricing, may be showing some flexibility. The supplier has started offering more competitive price links, with the lowest seen to Korea Gas at 10.8% the price of oil, according to FGE, an energy consultant. That compares to 2008, when Qatar signed contracts with Chinese firms in the 16% range.

Investment Delays

After four years of belt-tightening, the amount of investments last year in new production capacity set a record. Companies including Qatar Petroleum, Novatek PJSC and Venture Global LNG Inc. sanctioned new plants from the U.S. to Russia.

But the current wave of additional supply and persistent weak global prices is challenging new projects seeking final investment decisions, according to Morgan Stanley (NYSE:). The bank reduced its outlook for the number of projects reaching FID and revised lower its new supply outlook for the middle of the decade. The low price environment will also likely force Qatar to stagger or postpone its planned 64% capacity expansion, currently scheduled by 2027, according to FGE.

Profit Pain

Weak prices mean more pain for global energy majors including Total SA (PA:) and Eni SpA, who have seen profits from gas-related businesses dwindle. Some European utilities — who face mounting criticism for their use of fossil fuels — may decide to follow peers that are ditching LNG altogether. Denmark’s Orsted A/S cited loss-making LNG operations for its decision to sell the business to Glencore (LON:) Plc at the end of last year, while Spain’s Iberdrola (MC:) SA completed its exit this month.

The Sunnier Side

Royal Dutch Shell (LON:) Plc, the biggest trader of the fuel, has been able to stave off losses on LNG through contracts linked to oil, while leveraging the weak spot market. Most long-term LNG contracts are linked to the price of crude, which puts them about twice as expensive as prompt cargoes sourced on the spot market.

The world’s biggest importers of LNG, Japan’s Jera Co. and Korea Gas Corp., will benefit from lower prices and may be encouraged to shift more of their procurement to the spot market. Jera gets about 20% on spot or via short-term contracts, which run four years of less. That compares with an average of 32% across global LNG trade. Korea Gas bought about one-quarter of its imports on a spot basis in 2018. Still, the firms’ upside is limited as they will source most of the remainder through oil-linked contracts.

India’s transition toward gas may get a boost, as the nation’s price-sensitive buyers are poised to pick up more cargoes from the spot market, Morgan Stanley analysts said in a Jan. 16 note. Beneficiaries of the transition are gas aggregators like Gail India Ltd and Petronet LNG Ltd and city gas distributors, according to the bank.



Australia’s Unemployment Rate Unexpectedly Falls to 5.1% in December By Bloomberg



(Bloomberg) — Australian unemployment unexpectedly declined in December as the labor market persisted in defying a sluggish economy, prompting a surge in the currency as traders slashed bets on an interest-rate cut.

The jobless rate declined to 5.1%, compared with economists estimates for it to hold steady at 5.2%. Employment rose by 28,900 people — almost triple estimates — while participation remained at 66%. Bushfires resulted in “disruption to data collection” in New South Wales, Victoria and the A.C.T.

The currency jumped more than half a percent as traders are now pricing in just a 24% chance of a rate cut next month, from 56% late Wednesday. The data extend a three-year run of hiring strength that has withstood volatility offshore and a slowdown at home.

Yet the job market’s health has failed to significantly push unemployment down to a level that would spark faster wages growth as it coincided with a swelling labor force. This led the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut rates three times since June to try to buttress investment and drive faster economic growth.

“These labor market figures will be interpreted in a positive manner,” said Callam Pickering, an economist at global jobs website Indeed Inc. who previously worked at the central bank. “However, with the bushfires likely to disrupt economic activity, and the with the Reserve Bank already leaning towards cuts, we expect further easing in the months to come.”

The Australian dollar surged to 68.79 U.S. cents following the report, up 0.6% from before the release. It was trading at 68.70 U.S. cents at 12:41 p.m. Sydney.

Indeed, the rise in employment was solely part-time, with full-time positions falling by 300, suggesting Christmas-related hiring.

Other details included:

  • New South Wales and Victoria, the most populous states, led the employment gains, with 20,600 and 10,300 respectively;
  • The mining hub of Western Australia, which has struggled since the end of the resources boom, led losses with 5,300;
  • Under-employment held at 8.3%

Governor Philip Lowe’s policy easing has so far delivered few results outside reinvigorating house price growth. He maintains “long and variable lags” in monetary policy mean it will take time for stimulus to work its way through the economy.

Consumer confidence fell 1.8% this month in response to the bushfire crisis, heading further into negative territory. While households are concerned about the economy, they are less pessimistic about their current and future financial situation — a good indicator of a healthy jobs market.

Moreover, rising property prices are a necessary forerunner to an eventual recovery in residential construction and in the shorter term should bring a wealth effect that supports consumption.

The RBA’s cash rate is at a record low 0.75% and Lowe estimates the lower bound at 0.25%, meaning he has just two cuts left in his policy arsenal before unconventional policy becomes a possibility.

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s recent pause after 75 basis points of rate cuts reduces the risk of the currency suddenly spiking. In addition, the signing of a phase one trade accord between the U.S. and China has lifted global sentiment and could encourage firms to press ahead with investment.

The RBA in its quarterly economic update in November forecast unemployment of 5.2% and wage growth of around 2.3% in 2020. It will release updated estimates on Feb. 7.

(Updates with comment from economist in fifth paragraph.)

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.



SNB Resisted Major Interventions as Franc Strengthened By Bloomberg


© Reuters. SNB Resisted Major Interventions as Franc Strengthened

(Bloomberg) — Sign up here to receive the Davos Diary, a special daily newsletter that will run from Jan. 20-24.

The Swiss National Bank appears to have resisted taking dramatic action in the past week to curb the franc’s appreciation to the strongest in almost three years.

Sight deposits at the SNB, considered an early indicator of activity, increased about 1.3 billion francs ($1.3 billion) to 585.9 billion francs in the week ending Jan. 17. That’s a gain of 0.2%, and analysts said it suggests no intervention.

The figures come as the franc pushes higher against the , something the Swiss central bank has been battling against for a decade. The currency rallied 0.7% last week after the U.S. Treasury added Switzerland back onto its currency watch list.

Yet the sight deposit data suggest the SNB didn’t do much to counter the rally, with Credit Suisse (SIX:) economist Maxime Botteron considering the figures in line with seasonal fluctuations. A spokeswoman for the SNB declined to comment on the data.

The SNB has used interventions on-and-off for years, and the franc’s recent appreciation had raised speculation it might have done so again recently. To help control the currency, which investors typically buy at times of market stress, the SNB also has a deposit rate at a record low of -0.75%.

Just days after the U.S. decision to monitor Switzerland, Alternate SNB Governing Board Member Martin Schlegel stressed that if policy needs to be eased, there’s room to expand the balance sheet.

Swiss central bank officials don’t usually comment on intervention and they they publish statistics once a year.

According to St. Galler Kantonalbank Chief Investment Officer Thomas Stucki, the SNB will continue to selectively intervene. An average franc appreciation of 1.5%-2% annually is manageable for the country, he said.

“Our base case is that the pace of franc strength wears off — but in the event of a deteriorating euro-zone outlook the franc appreciation drift could resume,” said Christin Tuxen, Danske Bank’s head of currency research.

(Updates with comments starting in fourth paragraph)

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.





Source link

China’s Economy Grew 6% in Fourth Quarter as Demand Stabilized By Bloomberg



(Bloomberg) — China’s economy stabilized last quarter after slowing to the weakest pace in almost three decades, as rising demand and easing trade tensions supported sentiment.

  • Gross domestic product rose 6% in the final quarter of 2019 from a year earlier, the same as in the previous three-month period and the median estimate

Key Insights

  • The world’s second-largest economy expanded by 6.1% in 2019, slower than 6.6% the previous year
  • Industrial output rose 6.9% in December from the same period the previous year, versus the median forecast of 5.9%
  • Retail sales rose 8% versus an estimate of 7.9%
  • Fixed-asset investment rose 5.4% in the year, versus an estimate of 5.2%
  • The signing of the phase-one trade deal this week combined with recovering global demand have improved the outlook for Chinese factories and exporters in 2020. However, it remains to be seen whether that carries over into a sustained recovery, with increased investment and consumption domestically
  • Policy makers have signaled they are prioritizing economic stability in 2020, with stimulus to be kept basically unchanged
  • “The pace of slowdown should moderate, supported by a cyclical bottoming in the first half of 2020,” JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:) & Co. economists including Zhu Haibin wrote in a note. Yet the growth momentum will likely soften in the second half, because the implementation of the phase-one deal could be “bumpy” and the chances for further agreement are slim, he said.

Get More

  • The surveyed jobless rate stood at 5.2% at the end of 2019
  • China had 14.65 million newborns in the year, compared with 15.23 million in 2018
Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.



Pound Falls After Weak U.K. Retail Boosts Prospect of Rate Cut By Bloomberg



(Bloomberg) — Want the lowdown on European markets? In your inbox before the open, every day. Sign up here.

The slipped after U.K. data unexpectedly fell in December, increasing the chances that the Bank of England may cut a key interest rate this month.

Sterling dropped 0.2% to $1.3049 and declined against all its Group-of-10 peers as the volume of goods sold in stores and online fell 0.6% in December, confounding expectations of a 0.6% increase. Money markets are pricing a 75% chance of a rate cut on Jan. 30, compared with 62% on Thursday.

Markets are now turning their attention to impending purchasing managers’ indexes for further signs of the BOE’s direction.

“Clearly, there is a chance for a decent rebound of the PMIs next week and this may stay the BOE’s hand,” said Valentin Marinov, a strategist at Credit Agricole (PA:) SA. “That said, following this week’s weaker CPI and retail sales, the bar for stable rates is getting very high.”

Traders had been speculating that the central bank will cut rates at Mark Carney’s last monetary policy decision as BOE governor after a flurry of dovish comments from policy makers. The yield on 10-year U.K. government bonds was down three basis points at 0.61%, falling a sixth day and on course for its longest streak since August.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.





Source link