China’s Trade Data Show Brighter Exports, Weak Domestic Demand By Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) — China’s exports declined less than expected in October as optimism rose about an interim trade deal with the U.S., while imports contracted for a sixth straight month.

Exports decreased 0.9% in dollar terms in October from a year earlier, while imports dropped by 6.4%, the customs administration said Friday. That left a trade surplus of $42.81 billion for the month.

Key Insights

  • The improvement in exports will provide some relief to companies, which are being squeezed by falling profits amid factory deflation. Falling imports point to a slowing domestic economy.
  • The U.S. and China have agreed to roll back tariffs on each other’s goods in phases as they work toward a deal, both sides said Thursday.
  • China’s trade surplus with the U.S. was $26.42 billion in October; Exports to the U.S. are now down 11.3% in dollar terms in the year to date from the same period in 2018.
  • At the same time, the date of the summit may be pushed back to December as the two sides wrangle over the details.
  • “There are some signs of stabilization for exporters. And with the possible rollback of tariffs, next year is very likely to stage a recovery for exports,”said Gai Xinzhe, a senior analyst at Sino-Ocean Capital in Beijing.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say..

“A slower pace of decline in exports in October offers some encouragement for the economy’s performance heading into year-end. That said, a continued slide in imports, coupled with contraction in the new orders component of the official manufacturing PMI, suggest domestic demand remains weak — tempering any optimism about growth bottoming out near term.”

David Qu and Qian Wan, Bloomberg Economics

For the full note click here

Get More

  • Economists had forecast that exports would drop by 3.9% while imports would contract by 7.8%.
  • “The slightly improving imports may be largely due to the moderate pickup in domestic infrastructure investment, and it may last for some time,” said Betty Wang, senior China economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Hong Kong. “On exports, the market is getting excited about the phase-one deal, but we think that is only the short-term optimism instead of long-term certainty. There is still lack of clear sign of recovery. It is too early to say anything now.”

(Updates with exports to U.S. in Key Insights section)

To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Miao Han in Beijing at;Tomoko Sato in Tokyo at

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Jeffrey Black at, Sharon Chen

©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.