Dollar Shows Strength Amid Economic Recovery Concerns By Investing.com



© Reuters.

By Peter Nurse

Investing.com – The dollar edged higher in early European trade Thursday, as concerns about the global economic recovery given a second-wave of Covid-19 infections prompted traders to desert riskier assets in favor of safe havens.

At 2:55 AM ET (0655 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, was up 0.1% at 94.505, around levels last seen two months ago.

Additionally, dropped 0.1% to 1.1653, just shy of a two-month low high reached on Wednesday, fell 0.2% at 1.2694, near levels last seen in late July, while was down 0.1% at 105.34.

“The dollar is holding onto gains as global sentiment remains fragile amid rising Covid cases and renewed lockdown measures in Europe,” according to analysts at ING, in a research note.

France became the latest country to tighten restrictions on social gatherings on Thursday, announcing a 10 PM curfew on bars and restaurants as well as other measures. 

Also helping the flow away from riskier assets, a number of Federal Reserve policymakers wared that further government aid is needed to bolster the economy, with that stimulus looking very unlikely in the near term. The drop in IHS Markit’s , while less closely tracked than the Institute for Supply Management’s survey, didn’t help. 

Focus is set to turn to the , due later Thursday, which is forecast to show an improvement in business morale in Europe’s largest economy.

Elsewhere, traded 0.1% higher at 0.9240, while dropped 0.1% to 1.0767 ahead of the Swiss National Bank’s latest policy-setting meeting.

The central bank is widely expected to keep its key deposit rate at -0.75%, as the franc has declined around 1% since the SNB’s last policy meeting in June, relieving pressure on the central bank to counter the disinflationary effects of a rallying currency.

Central bank meetings in Egypt and Turkey later Thursday will also be studied carefully by foreign exchange traders, given the risk of large currency moves: the Turkish lira hit another new all-time low in early trading before bouncing.

All but one of 11 economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict Egypt’s central bank will hold its benchmark deposit rate at 9.25%, with the bank’s last move being a cut of 300 basis points in March.

The central bank’s focus remains on keeping capital inflows high, with Egypt’s real interest rate among the world’s highest.

In Turkey, the situation is more fluid, but only three of 31 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg predict the key one-week repo rate will rise from 8.25%. That said, six institutions, including Goldman Sachs (NYSE:) and JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:), forecast an increase in the late liquidity lending rate — the central bank’s highest — of between a quarter-percentage point to 100 basis points.

At 2:55 AM ET, traded 0.1% lower at 7.5869, while rose 0.3% to 15.7500.

 





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ECB Set to Hand Banks More Ultra-Cheap Cash to Boost Lending By Bloomberg



© Reuters. ECB Set to Hand Banks More Ultra-Cheap Cash to Boost Lending

(Bloomberg) — Euro-zone banks are gearing up for another dose of ultra-cheap funding as the European Central Bank gives them every possible incentive to lend to the pandemic-stricken economy.

Thursday’s installment of targeted loans, known as TLTROs, will give banks long-term loans for an interest rate as low as minus 1% — meaning the ECB pays them to borrow — as long as they lend the cash onto companies and households.

Attractive as the offer is, banks are already well-funded after taking a record 1.3 trillion euros ($1.5 trillion) in the previous operation three months ago. Estimates this time range from 10 billion euros by Barclays (LON:) Plc to 200 billion euros at NatWest Markets Plc. The result will be announced at 11:30 a.m. in Frankfurt.

“More than 100 billion euros would mean we’re in business,” said Rishi Mishra, an analyst at Futures First.

The TLTRO has become one of the ECB’s most-important tools because it more than compensates banks for the official policy rate of minus 0.5%. The policy rate is a charge on banks’ deposits, undercutting profitability and potentially dissuading them from lending.

Some economists reckon the ECB has stumbled on a dual-rate system that allows it to cut borrowing costs with no practical limit without damaging the banking system.

Still, the extraordinary access to cheap cash — combined with other monetary stimulus such as massive bond-buying programs — does raise the prospect of side effects such as elevated asset prices and risky lending.

It could even undermine the ECB’s influence over short-term market rates. Three-month Euribor — the rate at which banks can theoretically borrow from one another — fell to a record low of minus 0.508% this week.

When it dropped below the ECB’s policy rate last week, that was a phenomenon that had happened only once before, in August 2019, shortly before the central bank cut its deposit rate.

Excess liquidity in the euro zone, the money over and above that needed to finance the economy, will probably soon pass 3 trillion euros for the first time.

More stimulus could be ahead. The ECB projects that the economy will contract 8% this year, and the inflation rate has fallen below zero for the first time in four years. Rising coronavirus infections could worsen the outlook.

Economists predict the 1.35 trillion-euro pandemic bond-buying program will be expanded again this year. Markets aren’t pricing another 10 basis-point rate cut until October 2021.

Piet Christiansen, chief strategist at Danske Bank A/S in Copenhagen, estimates that excess liquidity will rise by another 600 billion euros to 800 billion euros by the summer of 2021.

“We think this dovish view should and will prevail,” said Frederik Ducrozet, chief global strategist at Banque Pictet & Cie in Geneva.

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

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Euro Hits Nearly Two-Month Lows on Signs Covid Wave Hurting Recovery By Investing.com



© Reuters.

By Yasin Ebrahim

Investin.com – The euro fell to a nearly two-month low against the dollar as data on Wednesday signaled the resurgence of Covid-19 is hurting the bloc’s economic recovery as services fell into contraction territory for the first time in three months.

fell 0.26% to $1.1676, to remain near lows of the day of $1.1664.

The IHS Markit flash eurozone purchasing managers’ index for services fell to 47.6 in September, from 50.5 in the previous month, data published on Wednesday showed. It was the first time in three months that the reading had dropped below a reading of 50, signifying a contraction, and was the lowest level since May.

“The second wave of corona infections in many euro countries appears to be slowing down the recovery in the services sector,” Commerzbank (DE:) said, pointing to a recent report showing weakened activity in the eurozone.

Some of the eurozone’s biggest economies have seen a steady rise in cases over the past two weeks, with Spain, France and the Netherlands among the countries feared to be dealing with a second wave of infection.  The Netherlands reported that infections hit a record high on Wednesday, with 2,357 confirmed over the previous 24 hours.

Eurozone manufacturing activity improved, however, rising to a reading of 53.7, its highest in two years. But against the backdrop of rising coronavirus infection, governments may be forced to impose tighter restrictions that could stall the pick-up in manufacturing.

“(G)iven the increased number of cities being subject to tighter restrictions in an attempt to contain the spread of Covid-19, there is certainly the risk of a further weakening in services in the coming quarter, which might in due course take its toll on the manufacturing sector too,” Daiwa said.  

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.





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Pound Falls to Two-Month Low on Risk of a Second U.K. Lockdown By Bloomberg



© Reuters Pound Falls to Two-Month Low on Risk of a Second U.K. Lockdown

(Bloomberg) — The pound extended its decline to a two-month low as investors fretted over the possibility of a new lockdown in Britain.

The declined as much as 0.4% to $1.2680 after Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said that he can’t rule out a nationwide shutdown. Government bonds rallied, sending the yield across tenors down about two basis points.

Less than 12 hours earlier, Prime Minister Boris Johnson set new rules to curb the rise in coronavirus cases, including a 10 p.m. closing time for pubs and restaurants and a recommendation for office workers to work from home if they can.

These announcements don’t “inspire confidence in U.K. services or the economic outlook,” said Kenneth Broux, a strategist at Societe Generale SA in London. Strength in the dollar and short covering are another contributing factor to the pound’s weakness following hawkish comments from Chicago Fed President Charles Evans.

The new U.K. restrictions have put an abrupt end to the government’s drive to open its economy and revive growth. The first nationwide lockdown that shuttered social and commercial activity in March triggered the U.K.’s worst recession in more than a century. But infection numbers have been spiking after the summer holidays, with daily confirmed cases around 4,000 over the past week.

Economic Pain

The new restrictions unveiled by Johnson — combined with the withdrawal of some fiscal stimulus and risks of a messy exit from the European Union when the transition period ends — mean there could be no economic growth in either the fourth quarter or the first three months of next year, according to Bank of America Global Research.

And if the government opts for a two-week shutdown of the U.K. hospitality sector, it may knock at least 2% off the nation’s gross domestic product and trigger further stimulus from the Treasury and Bank of England, according to {{0| JPMorgan (NYSE:) Chase}} & Co.

Raab was “doing his best to sink the pound,” said Valentin Marinov, the head of Group-of-10 foreign exchange strategy at Credit Agricole. “The pound should remain vulnerable ahead of today’s PMIs that could show first signs of outlook deterioration following the post-Covid-19 rebound over the summer.”

Economists are expecting a drop in a closely-watched survey of U.K. services and manufacturing published Wednesday.

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

 

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.





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China Taps Brakes on Yuan’s Big Rally With Another Weaker Fixing By Bloomberg



© Reuters. China Taps Brakes on Yuan’s Big Rally With Another Weaker Fixing

(Bloomberg) — China’s yuan fixing was weaker than expected for a second day, reinforcing speculation that the central bank wants to slow the currency’s biggest quarterly rally since 2008.

The People’s Bank of China set its daily reference rate at 6.7986 per dollar on Wednesday, after the greenback strengthened overnight. That was 43 basis points weaker than the average estimate in a Bloomberg survey, following a gap on Tuesday that was the widest in about two months. The yuan dropped as much as 0.23% to 6.7975 per dollar in early trading.

The Chinese currency has been rallying due to a slumping dollar, signs the economy is recovering from the virus pandemic, a yield premium over U.S. assets and optimism the country’s debt will be added to global indexes. The has jumped about 4% against the dollar this quarter, on track for its biggest such gain in 12 years.

“The fixing has been weaker for two days, which might be a signal that policy makers want to somewhat manage the pace of the rally,” said Hao Zhou, an economist at Commerzbank AG (OTC:). “It is time for investors and policy makers to take a break and think about the pros and cons of the rally.”

The Chinese currency is flirting with its biggest quarterly advance in data going back to 1981, with the gain now just shy of a 4.2% surge to start 2008. The rally has come as the dollar slumped, sending the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index to its lowest in two years last week. That measure of greenback strength was last up 0.13%, climbing for a fourth session to head for its highest in six weeks.

A rate premium over the U.S. is another factor bolstering the yuan. The yield on Chinese government bonds due in a decade over comparable U.S. notes is near the highest on record. Also helping sentiment are expectations that Russell will say this week that it plans to add China bonds to its flagship indexes.

Beijing took a relatively hands-off approach to yuan appreciation during its recent surge. That’s a departure from a few years ago when it tried rein in gains due to fears a strong currency would hurt exporters. This time around, China has changed its strategy for boosting growth, preferring to focus on cheapening imports and bolstering domestic consumption.

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.





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Pound Bears Find Joy as PM Johnson Imposes New Restrictions to Curb Virus By Investing.com



© Reuters.

By Yasin Ebrahim

Investing.com – The pound slumped to a nearly two-month low Tuesday as the U.K. government imposed new lockdown measures that could halt the pace of economic recovery as the second wave of Covid-19 gathers pace.

by 0.62% to $1.2734, its lowest since July 27, to test 100-and 200-day moving averages at around the 1.2720 level.

Britain’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned the country was at a “perilous turning point” and reversed the lifting of some lockdown measures in England.  

The warning comes as the UK reported 4,926 new infections, up from 4,368 on Monday.

The new restrictions include a curfew on pubs and a tightening of the ‘rule of six,’ which limits social gatherings up to a maximum of six people. The measures are likely to remain in place for six months, Johnson suggested.

As well as Covid-19 worries, the pound has been pressured by ongoing concerns about a no-deal Brexit. Johnson’s internal markets bill, which undermines parts of the Brexit deal, has soured UK-EU relations.  

The bill is not expected to be debated in the House of Lords until after a key summit with EU leaders in mid-October, according to media reports.

The pound had earlier found some reprieve after Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey pushed back against expectations the bank was considering cutting rates below zero. “Yes [negative rates] it’s in the tool bag, but that does not imply anything about the probability of us using negative interest rates at the moment,” Bailey said.

The weak start to the week for cable comes in the wake of data suggesting bullish bets on the currency pair is running out of steam.

“The second most sizable move in G10 positioning last week was the erosion of GBP net long positioning with a drop from 7% of open interest to 2%,” ING said in a note. “Still, GBP net shorts are nothing but a fraction of what we witnessed in other period where a no-deal outcome appeared as tangible as it is now.”

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.





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Commodity Currencies Could Bear the Brunt of a Stronger Dollar By Bloomberg



© Reuters. Commodity Currencies Could Bear the Brunt of a Stronger Dollar

(Bloomberg) — Global commodity currencies and the pound are poised to suffer most among Group of 10 currencies if the dollar makes a more strident comeback.

The Norwegian , , the Swedish , and will cop the biggest losses, and in that order, a study of G-10 currencies suggests. The study, based on the sensitivity of currencies to changes in the over the past year, shows the will be the least affected.

The study illustrates why the was less than perturbed by the swings in the market Monday amid considerable head-scratching by market observers as to why the haven currency didn’t rally amid the risk-off. Clearly, for currency traders, Monday’s move was more about the dollar’s comeback as a haven currency rather than a broad risk-off signal.

While it’s too early to call the greenback’s move a trend, the rebound comes barely two weeks after readers were warned about a wide divergence in fair values of key G-10 currencies. At 93.644, the dollar index is still undervalued in a currency fair-value model by well more than 3% and has a long way to go before that gap can be closed.

Only time will tell whether the dollar’s comeback is here to stay, but what is clear is that some crosses have more to lose than others if Monday’s moves morph into a trend.

NOTE: Ven Ram is a currency and rates strategist for Bloomberg’s Markets Live. The observations are his own and not intended as investment advice.

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

 

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.





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China Sets Weaker Yuan Fix in First Sign Record Rally May Slow By Bloomberg



© Bloomberg. Chinese one-hundred yuan banknotes are arranged for a photograph in Hong Kong, China, on Thursday, April 23, 2020. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has cut short- and medium-term rates recently on top of liquidity injections, loan rollovers and easier regulatory rules. Photographer: Paul Yeung/Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) — China set its daily yuan fixing at a weaker-than-expected level, the first signal that policy makers may want to rein in this quarter’s rapid appreciation in the currency.

The People’s Bank of China’s reference rate was set at 6.7872 on Tuesday, after the spot rate weakened 0.51% overnight. That’s almost 60 basis points weaker than the average estimate in a Bloomberg survey, the largest gap on the weak side in about two months.

Still, the currency strengthened 0.22% to 6.7897 per dollar as of 9:35 a.m. in Shanghai.

“The market is growing increasingly concerned that the PBOC will guide the yuan weaker due to the rapid rally in the currency recently,” said Tommy Xie, an economist at Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. “We need to see a few more days’ fixings to see if the central bank can no longer tolerate the advance. Right now, investors still like to long the yuan given the strong fundamentals.”

The yuan was on track for its biggest ever quarterly gain in Bloomberg data going back to 1981, before a rebound in the greenback triggered a three-day slide in the Chinese currency. While a slump in the dollar has helped, Chinese media has attributed the gains to the nation’s economic recovery. It’s still up 4.1% since the end of June.

The PBOC had also helped by not standing in its way, which for some in the market was an incentive for the currency to push higher. The fixing limits the yuan’s move to 2% in either direction.

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.





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Dollar Rides Euro Slump to More Than 1-Month High on Second Wave Fears By Investing.com



© Reuters.

By Yasin Ebrahim

Investing.com – The dollar rode a slump in the euro to a more than one-month high on Monday, and appeared to reclaim its safe-haven status amid jitters over global growth amid rising odds of Europe re-imposing lockdown measures to curb the spread of Covid-19.

The , which measures the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.80% to 93.69, its highest since Aug. 13.

“Expect lots more restrictions over the days and weeks ahead, especially in Europe,” Deutsche Bank (DE:) analysts said in a note Monday. “The fact that the virus is already spreading quite rapidly is a big worry.”

European health ministers have raised the alarm bells on the impact of a second wave, with German Health Minister Jens Spahn reportedly warning Monday that Germany could see infection spikes following a spread in countries such as France, Austria, and the Netherlands.

In the UK, Patrick Vallance, Britain’s chief scientific adviser, said that there could be 50,000 new infections every day by mid-October if the virus continues at its current rate.

fell 0.66% to $1.1759 and fell 0.89% to $1.2801.

Still, the rally in the dollar could prove to be short-lived as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is likely to reiterate the bank’s lower-for-longer interest rate environment in congressional testimony this week later this week, ING said in a note.

“That should keep the dollar on the back foot, even if data from Europe underwhelms,” the bank added. “At the same time, it should leave the USD unable to stage long-lived rebounds and we expect the benign dollar bear trend to take shape again this week.”

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.





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Dollar Drifts Lower Ahead of Plethora of Fed Speakers By Investing.com



© Reuters.

By Peter Nurse

Investing.com – The dollar edged lower in early European trade Monday in thin trading with Japan on holiday and with investors cautious ahead of a number of U.S. Federal Reserve speakers this week.

At 2:50 AM ET (0650 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, was down 0.1% at 92.862, the rose 0.2% at 1.1860, up 0.4% at 1.2961, while was down 0.2% at 104.34.

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s stated policy of keeping interest rates at near zero levels for a prolonged period remains a drag on the dollar, but close attention will be paid to remarks from committee members this week for any more clues on the new approach to inflation.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is due to appear before Congressional committees later this week, while Fed committee members Lael Brainard, Charles Evans, Raphael Bostic, James Bullard, Mary Daly and John Williams (NYSE:) also make public speeches.

“Inflation will be allowed to overshoot but we still don’t know by how much and for how long,” said Nordea’s Andreas Steno Larsen, in a research note. “We have interpreted it as a de facto 2.4% target as PCE prices have averaged around 1.6% over the past 5-10 years, but we are essentially still kept in the dark by the Fed.”

Aside from these Fed speakers, the U.S. data calendar is quite light this week, but August existing home sales could well be strong given record low mortgage rates. 

Also of interest this week will be whether Russell, a leading global provider of stock market indices, includes China in its World Government Bond Index on Thursday, a move that would likely trigger even more inflows into the country and support the yuan.

“The assets under management tracking this index is big … so we are seeing some pre-positioning taking place,” said Bank of Singapore currency analyst Moh Siong Sim, in a Reuters report.

“But it’s not just the index, the bigger picture here is that the (Chinese) economy is doing well, there’s an interest-rate differential that is supporting the currency and a Biden victory (at the U.S. election) might provide further relief.”

dropped 0.1% to 6.7583, hovering just above a 16-month low it hit last week. The yuan has gained more than 4% since the end of June.

Elsewhere, the remained under pressure at 7.5723 to the dollar, close to the all-time low it hit last week.

 

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.





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